REGIONAL SUMMARY:
In the fourth week of 2025, the ASEAN region faced 51 disasters, including floods, landslides, and an earthquake, impacting Indonesia, and the Philippines. According to Indonesia’s Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB), floods and landslides were reported in various provinces, including Bali, Gorontalo, West Java, Central Java, East Java, West Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, Lampung, West Nusa Tenggara, Riau, and South Sulawesi. The Philippines’ National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) recorded a magnitude 5.8 earthquake in Southern Leyte, Region VIII. Additionally, Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported ongoing flooding in Tatau, Sarawak, as of 27 Jan at 1500 HRS UTC+7.
HIGHLIGHT:
In Indonesia, BNPB reported that heavy rainfall and river overflows have led to significant flooding and landslides. Central Java has been particularly affected, with severe impacts recorded in areas such as Pemalang, Sragen, Batang, Pekalongan, Grobogan, Surakarta, Semarang City, Kendal, Demak, Banjarnegara, Kudus, and Jepara, as of January 27 at 0700 HRS UTC+7. These events have resulted in the loss of 26 lives, affected more than 42K families (equivalent to more than 150K individuals), and displaced more than 4K people. Reports indicate substantial damage, including 51.1K houses, 13 bridges, 16 roads, 115 schools, 11 health facilities, 58 public facilities, 41 places of worship, and approximately 11.8K hectares of agricultural areas. Relevant agencies are actively responding to these situations, continuously monitoring, and assessing the situation to address the needs of those impacted.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed medium to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across Maritime Continent which includes Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia (Sabah, Sarawak, and tip of southern Peninsular), the Philippines, and Singapore. As of this reporting, there is no active tropical cyclone being monitored in the ASEAN region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Six (6) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), Myanmar’s Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), Thailand’s Meteorological Department (TMD), and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Ibu (alert level IV), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level III), Ili Lewotolok (alert level II), Semeru (alert level II), and Marapi (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Kanlaon Volcano (alert level 3), Taal (alert level 1), and Mayon (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, no significant regional anomalies are predicted over Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a low chance for very heavy rainfall event as well as for extreme hot conditions to occurs over Southeast Asia. La Niña-like conditions predicted for January (most models predict these conditions not to persist long enough to declare a La Niña event).
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Myanmar: DMH;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: TMD;
Various news agencies.
