REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the forty-third week of 2024, the ASEAN region experience 15 significant disasters, including droughts, floods, landslides, storms, and winds-related events. Indonesia and the Philippines were affected by these disasters. The Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia reported drought, flooding, and wind-related events in Gorontalo, West Java, East Java, Central Kalimantan, Lampung, West Nusa Tenggara, West Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, and Central Sulawesi. In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported that Tropical Cyclone TRAMI has affecting Region 1, 2, 3, CALABARZON, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12, CARAGA BARMM, CAR, and NCR. Lastly, the Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) also reported the impacts of Tropical Cyclone TRAMI in Central Region.
HIGHLIGHT:
According to PAGASA, Tropical Cyclone TRAMI (Philippine local name Kristine) made its initial landfall over Divilacan, Isabela, the Philippines on 23 October around 1130 HRS UTC+7 as a severe tropical storm level. As of 24 October at 1300 HRS UTC+7, TRAMI is no longer in the landmass of Luzon, the Philippines and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on 25 October. According to NDRRMC, as of 28 Oct at 0700 HRS UTC+7, the impacts of Tropical Cyclone TRAMI in the Philippines have reached CATASTROPIC category based on the AHA Centre’s DMA Guidelines. A total of 160 cities/municipalities have declared a state of calamity over Region 1 (1), CALABARZON (64), 5 (79), 8 (13), 12 (1), CAR (1), and NCR (1). According to the NDRRMC reports, a total of 1.66M families (6.72M people) have been affected in Region 1, 2, 3, CALABRZON, MIMAROPA, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, CARAGA, BARMM, CAR, and NCR and 980K persons remain internally displaced (of which, 141.9K families or 561.7K persons were served inside 6,286 evacuation centres). Reports also indicate that there have been 116 lives lost (10 validated), 109 injured (2 validated), and 39 missing (1 validated). The disaster has also resulted in 44.5K damaged houses, 3,004 of which were totally damaged. Damages have reportedly reached 69.7M USD (houses, agriculture, livestock, poultry, fisheries, infrastructure, and other assets) and an estimated 6.2M USD worth of assistance has been provided to the affected community from DSWD, LGUs, OCD, NGOs, and other Partners.
Following a request for assistance from NDRRMC-OCD on 23 October, the AHA Centre has expressed its sympathy and readiness to support NDRRMC-OCD in ongoing relief operations. In close coordination with NDRRMC-OCD, the AHA Centre will dispatch ASEAN relief items from the DELSA Satellite Warehouse in Camp Aguinaldo, the Philippines, to be distributed to the affected communities by Tropical Cyclone TRAMI in the Philippines. Additionally, the Philippines has accepted offers of assistance from Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, and Singapore for foreign military air assets from the Royal Brunei Air Force (RBAF), the Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF), and the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF).
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicates a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high across Southern and Western Myanmar, including Ayeyarwaddy, Yangon, and Rakhine, due to the development of Tropical Cyclone DANA. Similarly, significant rainfall has been observed in most of the Philippines, Central Viet Nam, Southern Lao PDR, and Cambodia associated with Tropical Cyclone TRAMI. As of this reporting period, Tropical Cyclone TRAMI near Viet Nam and Tropical Cyclone Kong-Rey over the west Philippine Sea are expected to continue impacting the ASEAN region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Seven (7) significant earthquakes (M?5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG). Mount Semeru (alert level II), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level III), Ibu (alert level III), and Marapi (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 1), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 2), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over the southern Maritime Continent; drier conditions are expected over southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia and parts of the northern half of the Maritime Continent; warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent, apart from the southern region; and cooler than usual temperature is predicted over much of eastern Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance over Southern Lao PDR and moderate increase in chance over Central Viet Nam and Nusa Tenggara Islands for very heavy rainfall events; and small increase in chance over parts of southern Maritime Continent, and moderate increase in chance over central and northern Myanmar, parts of the Philippines, and the equatorial region for extreme hot conditions. La Niña conditions are likely from October – November 2024 onwards.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Viet Nam: VDDMA, NCHMF;
Various news agencies.
