REGIONAL SUMMARY:
During Week 52 of 2025, a total of 28 disaster events were reported across the ASEAN region, including floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related incidents that affected Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. According to the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB), these events were reported across South Sulawesi, Central Java, West Java, East Java, Lampung, Yogyakarta, South Kalimantan, West Nusa Tenggara, and Banten. In Malaysia, Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported flooding in Terengganu and Johor. In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported impacts of the Easterlies in Regions V and VI. In addition, BNPB continued to report the updated impacts from the severe flooding in northern parts of Sumatra, following the effects of the Northeast Monsoon and Tropical Cyclone SENYAR from Week 47.
HIGHLIGHT:
According to BNPB, as of 29 Dec 2025, the total number of fatalities from the widespread floods and landslides in Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra has reached 1,140 people, with 163 individuals still reported missing, and 399.2K displaced population. Damaged infrastructure and facilities, include 166.9K houses (53.6K heavily damaged, 41.9K moderately damaged, 71.5K slightly damaged), 215 health facilities, 3.2K educational facilities, 806 places of worship, 97 bridges, and 99 roads.
Response and recovery efforts remain ongoing, with authorities continuing to support affected communities through the delivery of essential services and the restoration of infrastructure. The AHA Centre continues to closely monitor the situation, in coordination with BNPB Indonesia, and remains ready to provide assistance should the need arise.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high 7-day average rainfall across Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Timor-Leste, with high rainfall concentrated in the equatorial and southern equatorial regions. As of 1900H UTC+7, Tropical Cyclone Hayley is being monitored in the Indian Ocean south of Sumba Island, Indonesia. Additionally, INVEST 90S was located southwest of Lampung with low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours. (BMKG)
GEOPHYSICAL:
Five (5) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), the Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), and Thailand Meteorological Department (TMD). Mount Marapi (alert level II), Semeru (alert level III), and Ibu (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Kanlaon (alert level 2), Taal (alert level 1), Mayon (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) volcanoes in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, drier than usual conditions for this time of the year are predicted over parts of the western Maritime Continent and southern Mainland Southeast Asia. Based on the outlook initialized on 17 Dec, there is no increase in chance of very heavy rainfall this coming week. La Niña conditions are present and are predicted to persist in Jan 2026. The typical impact of La Niña on Southeast Asia is wetter-than-average rainfall conditions, including for much of the Maritime Continent during December to February. The negative IOD event has weakened, with IOD neutral conditions predicted for Jan 2026.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: TMD;
Various news agencies.
