REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the thirtieth week of 2024, the ASEAN region faced 23 disasters, including floods, landslides, storms, wind-related disasters, drought, and earthquakes. Indonesia, Thailand, and Viet Nam were affected by these disasters. Additionally, the Philippines experienced ongoing impacts from the Southwest Monsoon, Tropical Cyclone PRAPIROON, and GAEMI since week 28 over 17 regions (NDRRMC). The Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia reported flooding in Gorontalo and North Maluku, drought in West Nusa Tenggara, and an M4.1 earthquake in West Java. Meanwhile, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) in Thailand reported flooding, storms, and winds-related disasters over Nakhon Si Thammarat, Tak, Trat, Chanthaburi, Kanchanaburi, and Narathiwat. Lastly, the Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) recorded storms and winds in the Mekong Delta and Southern Region, along with the effects of Tropical Cyclone PRAPIROON in the Northern Region.
HIGHLIGHT:
In the Philippines, according to NDRRMC, as of 29 July at 0700 HRS UTC+7, the Combined Effects of the Southwest Monsoon, Tropical Cyclone PRAPIROON (Butchoy), and Tropical Cyclone GAEMI (Carina) in the Philippines have reached CATASTROPIC category based on the AHA Centre’s DMA Guidelines. A total of 105 cities/municipalities have declared a state of calamity over Region 1 (1), 3 (57), CALABARZON (24), MIMAROPA (3), 11 (1), 12 (2), and NCR (17). According to the NDRRMC reports as of 0700 HRS UTC+7, a total of 1.24M families (4.6M people) have been affected in Region 1, 2, 3, CALABRZON, MIMAROPA, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, CARAGA, BARMM, CAR, and NCR and 794K persons remain internally displaced (of which, 38.3K families or 152.8K persons were served inside 848 evacuation centres). Reports also indicate that there have been 36 lives lost (22 of which are still for validation), 6 injured (4 of which are still for validation), and 3 missing (still for validation). The disaster has also resulted in 1.6K damaged houses, 205 of which were totally damaged. Damages have reportedly reached 35.5M USD (houses, agriculture, livestock, poultry, fisheries, infrastructure, and other assets) and an estimated 4.9M USD worth of assistance has been provided to the affected community from OCD, DSWD, LGUs, NGOs, and Others.
On 25 July, the AHA Centre has maintained coordination with the NDRRMC as the Centre prepared to dispatch DELSA relief items from the DELSA Satellite Warehouse in Quezon City, the Philippines. The NDRRMC requested 2.5K ASEAN Family Kits, 12.5K Personal Hygiene Kits, 2.5K Shelter Repair Kits, 1 Generator Set, 2 Water Filtration Units, 2 Telescopic Lighting with Generator, and a Water Tank with 5K litre capacity; with a total worth of 370K USD for dispatch and distribution to the affected communities. As of 29 July, 7,328 personal hygiene kits (PHK) were retrieved and mobilised by the NDRRMC for distribution to affected communities (dispatched on 26 July and 29 July). The AHA Centre remains committed to liaising with NDRRMC-OCD for the dispatch of the requested DELSA relief items and stands ready to provide further support as needed.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicates a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high across Cambodia, Indonesia (Northern Sumatra, Northern Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua), Lao PDR, Malaysia (Sarawak), Myanmar (mostly over western and southern regions), Southern Thailand, and Viet Nam (Northern and Mekong Delta). As of reporting, there is no active tropical cyclone advisories for the ASEAN Region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Nine (9) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and Viet Nam Earthquake Information and Tsunami Warning Center – Institute of Geophysics (IGP). Mount Semeru (alert level II), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level III), Ibu (alert level III), and Marapi (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 1), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 2), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, drier conditions are predicted over most of the southern half of Mainland Southeast Asia and parts of northern and central Philippines; while wetter conditions are predicted over much of the equatorial region; and warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent and parts of southern and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance for very heavy rainfall conditions to occur over northern Myanmar, Peninsular Malaysia, and northwestern Borneo; and a moderate increase in chance over southern Maritime Continent, and a small increase in chance over southern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia and much of the Maritime Continent for extreme hot conditions. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state is now in neutral conditions. According to ASMC, for August – October 2024, models predict either ENSO neutral conditions to persist or La Niña conditions to develop.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Viet Nam: VDDMA, NCHMF, IGP;
Various news agencies.
