REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the thirty-ninth week of 2024, the ASEAN region experience 21 significant disasters, including floods, storms, strong winds, landslides, and drought. Indonesia and Viet Nam were affected by these disasters. Additionally, the impacts of Southwest Monsoon and Tropical Cyclone YAGI are still being reported in Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand, and Viet Nam, while the Philippines is currently responding to the impacts of Southwest Monsoon and TCs BEBINCA, SOULIK, PULASAN. The Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia reported flooding storms, and wind-related disasters in South Sulawesi, Jambi, North Maluku, West Kalimantan, Central Java, West Java, West Sumatra, and Lampung, while droughts were reported in South Sulawesi and East Java. Meanwhile, the Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) reported the impacts of storms, strong winds, floods, and landslides in An Giang, Lam Dong, and Ha Giang.
HIGHLIGHT:
As of 30 September, the AHA Centre maintains the EOC alert level at RED Alert to support ongoing emergency response operations led by NDMO in Lao PDR, DDM in Myanmar, NDRRMC in the Philippines, DDPM Thailand, and VDDMA in Viet Nam for the impacts of Southwest Monsoon and Tropical Cyclone YAGI. As of 30 Sep, in Lao PDR, YAGI and Southwest Monsoon have impacted 112 districts across 15 provinces. According to the NDMO Lao PDR, these events have resulted in nine fatalities and affected approximately 54.6K families (200.3K people). In Myanmar, as of 30 Sep, DDM reports that YAGI and Southwest Monsoon have affected approximately 959K individuals, with 425 fatalities, 48 injuries, and 84 people missing. In Thailand, the DDPM has reported that around 181.9K households have been affected across 37 provinces, with 49 fatalities. In Viet Nam, as of 30 Sep, VDDMA has reported that 333 individuals are either dead or missing across the Northern Region. Meanwhile, in the Philippines, the NDRRMC, the effects of the Southwest Monsoon and multiple tropical cyclones, including BEBINCA (local name Ferdie), INVEST 98W (local name Gener), Tropical Cyclone PULASAN (local name Helen), and INVEST 90W (local name Igme) affected 1.63M persons, with 26 fatalities, 18 injuries, and three individuals missing.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicates a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high across mainland Southeast Asia including Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand, Myanmar, and Viet Nam. Additionally, medium to high 7-day average rainfall is also observe in Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia (Sumatra, Kalimantan, Java, Maluku, and Papua), Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore. As of this reporting period, Tropical Cyclone KRATHON is being monitored north of Northern Luzon in the Philippines, as indicated by the concentration of very high rainfall north of the Philippines. TC KRATHON is expected to further intensify and may reach super typhoon category as is tracks west northwestward over the Bashi Channel before curving northeastward toward the southwestern coast of Taiwan in the following days. (PAGASA, JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Three (3) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level II), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level III), and Ibu (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 1), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 2), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted for most of the equatorial region. Drier conditions are predicted over much of central and southern Mainland Southeast Asia. Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over much of southern Mainland Southeast Asia and the Maritime Continent apart from the equatorial region. Cooler than usual conditions are predicted over northeast Mainland Southeast Asia. There is a small increase in chance of very heavy rainfall over northern Myanmar and parts of the eastern equatorial region, including Sulawesi, Papua, and Maluku Islands. La Niña conditions are predicted to develop during September – October 2024.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Lao PDR: NDMO, DMH;
Myanmar: DDM, DMH;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM, TMD;
Viet Nam: VDDMA, NCMHF;
Various news agencies.
