REGIONAL SUMMARY:
During the ninth week of 2026, a total of 16 disaster events were reported across the Association of Southeast Asian Nations region, including floods, storms, and strong wind-related disasters in Indonesia, Thailand, and Timor-leste. In Indonesia, Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported incidents across East Java, South Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, West Nusa Tenggara, South Sulawesi, and North Sulawesi. In Thailand, Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) reported storms and strong winds in Trang, Kanchaburi, and Nakhon Phanom. Meanwhile, in Timor-Leste, Civil Protection Authority (CPA) reported flooding in Dili and Covalima. In addition to the disasters that began during the ninth week of 2026, several disaster situations that started in the previous week continued to be reported, including flooding in Sabah, Malaysia, and the effects of a shear line and easterlies affecting several regions in the Philippines.
HIGHLIGHT:
In Indonesia, flooding occurred on 24 February at 2100H (UTC+7) after rising river levels inundated residential areas with water depths of 1–3 m. The flood affected 10 sub-districts in Nunukan Regency, including Lumbis Hulu, Lumbis Pensiangan, Lumbis Ogong, Lumbis, Sembakung Atulai, Sembakung, Krayan, Krayan Timur, Krayan Barat, and Sebuku. As of 1 March at 2218H (UTC+7), BNPB reported that around 4K households (12.5K people) were affected, with 30 people displaced to BPBD post in Lumbis. Reported damage includes 10 businesses, 17 educational facilities, 12 health facilities, 31 government offices, 18 public facilities, 19 places of worship, and one electricity pole. BPBD Nunukan continues coordination, monitoring, and emergency response operations, while providing community advisories and operating the emergency command post. An Emergency Response Status has been declared from 27 February to 8 March 2026 in several affected sub-districts. Current conditions indicate that water levels are rising in Lumbis (7.0 m) while gradually receding in Sembakung (4.50 m).
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high 7-day average rainfall across Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Timor-Leste. As of this reporting, INVEST 90S, over Indian Ocean, is forecast to persist, and moving slowly eastward. INVEST 90S is expected to have indirect impacts on weather conditions in Indonesia, including moderate to heavy rainfall in Lampung, Banten, and West Java over the next 24 hours (BMKG).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Seven (7) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), the Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), and Thai Meteorological Department (TMD). Mount Marapi (alert level II), Semeru (alert level III), Ili Lewotolok (alert level II), and Ibu (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Taal (alert level 1), Mayon (alert level 3), and Kanlaon (alert level 2) volcanoes in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and the Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, drier conditions are predicted over most of the central and eastern equatorial region; and coller than usual conditions are predicted over much of Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a low chance of very heavy rainfall is predicted over parts ASEAN Region; and a moderate increase in chance of extreme hot conditions is predicted for parts of Sulawesi and western Papua, with a small increase in chance for rest of Papua, the Maluku Islands, southern Borneo, and the northern Peninsular Malaysia. La Niña conditions are predicted to weaken in February 2026 and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions in March 2026. The typical impact of La Niña on Southeast Asia is wetter-than-average rainfall conditions, including for much of the Maritime Continent during December to February.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); ASEAN Earthquake Information Centre (AEIC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM, TMD;
Timor-Leste: CPA;
Various news agencies.
