REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the thirtieth week of 2023, four (4) disaster events reportedly affected the region. Indonesia and the Philippines were particularly affected. Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported the occurrence of floods caused by heavy rainfall and have reported droughts in some provinces. The Philippines’ National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported that the Combined Effects of the Southwest Monsoon and Tropical Cyclone DOKSURI has affected 13 regions in the country and that the Mayon Volcano in Region V also remains active and on Alert Level 3 (Increased Tendency Towards Hazardous Eruption).
HIGHLIGHT:
According to the NDRRMC, the Combined Effects of the Southwest Monsoon and TC DOKSURI in the Philippines has affected 13 regions and has reached Catastrophic category based on AHA Centre’s DMA Guidelines (more than 1.5M affected). 5 provinces have declared a state of calamity. Latest situation reports indicate that 654K families (2.4M people) have been affected and 313K remain internally displaced. Reports also indicate that there have been 25 lives lost, 52 injured, and 20 missing. The disaster has also resulted in 35.9K damaged houses, 1,283 of which were totally damaged. Damages have reportedly reached 100M USD equivalent and national authorities have provided 2.7M USD worth of assistance.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed high 7-day average rainfall spreading across the Philippine Sea and majority of the Philippines due to the development of TC DOKSURI; southern coasts of Myanmar and portions of Viet Nam, Cambodia, and Lao PDR. As of reporting, TC DOKSURI has dissipated within China and TC KHANUN is moving towards Okinawa, Japan. TC KHANUN is unlikely to make landfall in any member state but may continue to enhance the effects of the Southwest Monsoon to portions of the Philippines.
GEOPHYSICAL:
Three (3) significant earthquakes (M?5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG). Mount Semeru and Krakatau (alert level III) and Ibu and Dukono (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Mayon (alert level 3), Taal (alert level 1), and Kanlaon (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, drier conditions are predicted over the central and eastern parts of the southern ASEAN region; wetter conditions are also predicted over parts of the western Maritime Continent. Warmer than usual temperatures are also predicted over much of the Maritime Continent. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance for a very heavy rainfall event to occur in parts of Myanmar, Malay Peninsula, and northern Sumatra; and a moderate increase in chance for extreme hot conditions in much of the equatorial region. El Niño conditions are likely to be established during July – August 2023. During July and August, El Niño events tend to bring drier conditions to much of the southern ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS, DSWD;
Various news agencies.
