REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the forty-third week of 2022, a total of 43 disasters (2 earthquakes, 28 floods, 8 landslides, 1 storm, and 4 wind-related) affected the region. Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines have reportedly been affected. Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported floods, landslides, and wind-related events caused by moderate to heavy rainfall, high tide, strong wind, unstable soil condition, overflowing of the rivers, and irrigation channel in Aceh, Bali, Banten, Bengkulu, West Java, Central Java, East Java, South Kalimantan, Lampung, East Nusa Tenggara, West Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, and North Sulawesi, Indonesia. Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported that flooding occurred in Kedah and Melaka, Malaysia. The Philippines’ National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported flooding, landslides, storms, and winds caused by Tropical Cyclone NALGAE in the Philippines, and M6.4 earthquake in Abra, the Philippines.
HIGHLIGHT:
According to the PAGASA, Tropical Cyclone (TC) NALGAE (Paeng) made initial landfall over the Philippines landmass since 29 Oct. At most Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 3 was raised in the Philippines. As of 31 Oct, the NDRRMC reported that more than 1K floods, landslides, and other related incidents in Region I, II, Region III, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, V, VI, VII, VIII, IX, X, XI, XII, CARAGA, BARMM, CAR, and NCR. NDRRMC reported the following: 590.9K families (1.95M persons) affected in 5,108 barangays, 975K persons displaced (309K inside evacuation centres, 666K outside), 98 dead, 69 missing, 63 injured; for damages, 4.2K houses were reportedly damaged, and 195 roads and 72 bridges are currently not passable (from a total of 364 roads and 82 bridges affected); 20.6M USD worth of damage to agriculture and infrastructure was reported; for critical lifelines, 169 cities/municipalities currently have power outage, 7 currently still experiencing water supply interruption, 42 currently still experiencing communication interruption, and 7 airports as well as 94 seaports are non-operational. A total of 556.5K USD worth of assistance have been provided to the affected persons. The AHA Centre has sent a letter of sympathy with offer of assistance to NDRRMC-OCD on 31 Oct, and in close coordination with the NDRRMC-OCD of the Philippines for potential regional support.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed high 7-day average rainfall spreading across Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, and Papua in Indonesia; Sarawak and Peninsular Malaysia; most of the Philippines associated with the development of TC NALGAE; and North Central Coast Region of Viet Nam. As of reporting, TC NALGAE (Paeng) is located outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility as of 1110 HRS UTC+7, 31 Oct. Meanwhile TC 27W (Queenie) was estimated based on all available data at 695 km East Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur, the Philippines and moving west-southwestward. TC 27W is forecast to track westward-northwestward towards Caraga-Eastern Visayas area, the Philippines (JTWC, PAGASA).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Four (4) significant earthquakes (M?5.0) were recorded in the region by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level III), Anak Krakatau (alert level III), Ibu (alert level II), and Kerinci (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 1), Bulusan (alert level 1), and Mayon Volcano (alert level 2) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to the Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are expected over parts of the eastern Maritime Continent. Drier conditions are expected over much of central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia. Cooler conditions are expected over much of central and southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance to occur in Peninsular Malaysia, and a moderate chance in Sulawesi, Nusa Tenggara, and Maluku Islands for a very heavy rainfall event; a moderate increase in chance for extreme hot conditions to occur in Much of the Philippines, southeastern Maritime Continent. La Niña conditions have been present. At the seasonal timescale, La Niña events tend to bring wetter conditions to much of the ASEAN region. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also present. Negative IOD events tend to bring wetter conditions to much of the southern ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS, DSWD;
Various news agencies.
