REGIONAL SUMMARY:
In the ninth week of 2025, the ASEAN region experienced 44 disasters, including floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related disasters across Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. In Indonesia, the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported flooding, storms, landslides, and strong winds in the provinces of Riau, South Sumatra, East Java, Central Java, West Java, West Nusa Tenggara, Central Sulawesi, Aceh, West Sumatra, Lampung, East Nusa Tenggara, and South Kalimantan. In Malaysia, the Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported flooding events in Sabah. In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported flooding in Davao De Oro. Lastly, in Thailand, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) reported storms in Phetchabun and Uthai Thani in the Northern Region, and Nong Bua Lam Phu in the Northeastern Region.
HIGHLIGHT:
In Indonesia, significant flooding disasters have been reported by the BNPB. In Riau Province, heavy rainfall have caused overflowing of rivers and widespread flooding that affected about 35K people in five regencies. One of the most affected area is the regency of Rokan Hulu where 23.4K people (about 5.9K families) were reportedly affected by floods. In addition, three schools, eight government offices, four worship places, and two health facilities were inundated by floods. East Java was also significantly affected with 12.2K people affected, of these, 10.2K were from Gresik Regency. In West Java, storms accompanied by high intensity rains caused flooding and landslides that affected 12.6K people and caused four injuries. Authorities have immediately responded and provided support to the affected communities.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high 7-day average rainfall across Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, northern Myanmar, central and southern Philippines, and Southern Thailand. As of this report, there is no active tropical cyclone being monitored in the region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Six (6) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG). As of reporting, Lewotobi Laki-laki (Alert Level III), Ibu (Alert Level III), Dukono (Alert Level II), Ili Lewotolok (Alert Level II), and Semeru (Alert Level II) in Indonesia, have shown recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG). In the Philippines, Kanlaon (alert level 3), Taal (alert level 1), and Mayon (alert level 1) volcanoes have also reported recent volcanic activity, according to the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over much of the Maritime Continent. There is a moderate increase in chance of very heavy rainfall over northern and southern Philippines and northeastern Borneo. There is also an increase in the chance of 90th percentile rainfall for southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia, in particular Cambodia, central and southern Viet Nam, and southern Lao PDR. It is the dry season for the region and the chance of heavy rainfall is small. There is a small increase in chance of extreme warm conditions over Nusa Tenggara, eastern Java, and parts of northern Papua. La Niña conditions are now present. La Niña conditions tend to bring wetter than average conditions to much of the Maritime Continent at the seasonal timescale during the Northeast Monsoon period, and to much of the ASEAN region during the subsequent intermonsoon period.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Various news agencies.
