REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the forty-eighth week of 2024, the ASEAN region experience 35 significant disasters, including floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related events. Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam were affected by these disasters. The Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia reported flooding, storms, landslides, and wind-related events in Central Java, North Sulawesi, South Sumatra, North Sumatra, West Kalimantan, West Java, Jakarta, Banten, East Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, East Java, Central Sulawesi, and West Nusa Tenggara. In Malaysia, the Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported flooding in Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah, Negeri Sembilan, Pahang, Johor, Melaka, Perlis, and Selangor. In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported flooding and landslides in Western Visayas and Misamis Occidental in Region X. In Thailand, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) reported flooding in the Southern Region, specifically in Chumphon, Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Phatthalung, Trang, Satun, Songkhla, Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat provinces. Lastly, the Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) reported flooding and storms in Thua Thien Hue, Quang Nam and Quang Ngai in the Central Region.
HIGHLIGHT:
Monsoon rains continue to bring persistent heavy rainfall that has caused widespread flooding in Malaysia and Southern Thailand. In Malaysia, the number of displaced population has reached 153K (about 46K families) over the states in Peninsular Malaysia as reported by NADMA. The flooding has also resulted in five fatalities. Authorities have activated up to 686 evacuation centres to ensure the safety and well-being of the displaced population. In Thailand, the DDPM reported widespread flooding that has affected 664K households across 10 provinces in the Southern Region. There have also been 22 reported deaths in Phatthalung, Songkhla, Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat (for validation). Authorities continue to deploy emergency response teams and resources to provide assistance to the affected populations.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) has shown a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high over most of Maritime Southeast Asia including Indonesia, Malaysia, Visayas and Mindanao in the Philippines, and Southern Thailand. The prevalence of the Northeast Monsoon, Easterlies, and Madden-Julian Oscillation are among the atmospheric conditions that contribute to the increased rainfall in these parts of the region (BMKG, JMM, PAGASA, TMD). As of this reporting, there is no active tropical cyclone development being monitored in the region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Two (2) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Currently, Mount Lewotobi Laki-laki remains at alert level IV, the highest alert level for volcanoes in Indonesia. Additionally, Mount Ibu (alert level III), Dukono (alert level II), Dempo (alert level 2), and Semeru (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 1), Taal (alert level 1), and Kanlaon (alert level 2) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted to persist over much of the southern Maritime Continent. There is a moderate chance of very heavy rainfall over Nusa Tenggara. Meanwhile, extreme hot conditions are predicted with a small increase in chance to persist over parts of southern Mainland Southeast Asia and there is a small chance of extreme hot conditions over much of the equatorial region. La Niña conditions are developing, with La Niña conditions likely during November 2024 – February 2025.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA, JMM;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM, TMD;
Viet Nam: VDDMA, NCHMF;
Various news agencies.
