REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the thirty-fifth week of 2024, the ASEAN region experience 15 significant disasters, including floods, landslides, storms, strong winds, and earthquake. Indonesia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam were affected by these disasters. The Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia reported flooding and landslides in Central Kalimantan, Southwest Papua, Central Sulawesi, North Sumatra, North Maluku, West Kalimantan, and earthquake in Yogyakarta. In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported the flooding, storms, landslides, and strong winds in Metro Manila, Region IV (CALABARZON), V, and VII. Lastly, the Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) reported flooding in Binh Thuan.
HIGHLIGHT:
In the Philippines, INVEST 92W which was initially located east of Eastern Visayas, intensified into Tropical Cyclone YAGI (ENTENG). It further intensified as it moved north-northwestward toward the eastern coasts of Bicol Region and Mainland Luzon as it enhanced the Southwest Monsoon. These weather disturbances had brought heavy to torrential rainfall in Visayas and Luzon. According to NDRRMC Situation Report No. 1 dated 2 September, TC YAGI and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon caused 2 fatalities, 10 injuries, 63 displacements (of which 43 were served in 1 evacuation centre), 10 damaged houses (of which, 9 were totally damaged), disrupted operations in 14 seaports, and cancellation of 143 classes.
According to PAGASA, at 1600H today, Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (at most TCWS Signal 2) has been raised in Regions I, II, III, IVA, CAR, and the National Capital Region. TC YAGI is forecast to maintain tropical storm category during its traverse of mainland Northern Luzon. Further intensification is likely, with TC YAGI becoming a severe tropical storm by tomorrow afternoon or evening (at the earliest), and typhoon category by Thursday while also enhancing the Southwest Monsoon. NDRRMCOC is currently on RED Alert ICOW the effects of TC YAGI and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon. National, regional, and local authorities have immediately responded to the developing situation. Continuous monitoring and coordination are being condiucted, as well as regular updates and advisories are being released by authorities and relevant agencies. (NDRRMC, PAGASA).
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicates a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high across most of mainland Southeast Asia including Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia (Northern Sumatra, Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua), Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. At 1300H UTC+7, Tropical Cyclone YAGI (ENTENG) has made landfall in Casiguran, Aurora in the Philippines. YAGI is forecast to maintain tropical storm category during its traverse of mainland Northern Luzon, moving generally north northwestward. Further intensification is forecast to occur from tomorrow late evening onwards, with ENTENG becoming a severe tropical storm by tomorrow late evening or Wednesday morning, and typhoon category by Thursday. (PAGASA, JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Five (5) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Dukono (alert level II), Semeru (alert level II), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level III), and Ibu (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 1), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 2), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted for much of the northern ASEAN region in the coming week, with the highest likelihood of wetter conditions over southern Mainland Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, drier conditions are predicted over the central equatorial region. Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent. Warmer than usual temperature is also predicted over northern Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is an increase in chance of very heavy rainfall over the band covering southern Mainland Southeast Asia and the northern Philippines. The region with the highest likelihood is over southern Myanmar and southern Thailand, where there is a moderate increase in chance, while for the rest of the region there is a small increase in chance of very heavy rainfall. La Niña conditions are predicted to develop during September – October 2024 (ASMC).
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.
