REGIONAL SUMMARY:
During the fifth week of 2026, a total of 17 disaster events were reported across the ASEAN region, including floods, landslides, and wind-related hazards, affecting Indonesia. The Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported incidents across Jakarta, West Java, East Java, West Nusa Tenggara, Central Sulawesi, Banten, Gorontalo, South Sumatra, and Central Java.
HIGHLIGHT:
According to BNPB, flooding in Pemalang Regency, Central Java, triggered by high-intensity rainfall, inundated multiple villages, affecting an estimated 5K families (13.5K people) and submerging over 1.1K houses. Local authorities are conducting rapid assessments, evacuations, and aid distribution to support affected communities as data collection continues.
In addition, updated BNPB reports on the rain-induced landslide in West Bandung Regency, West Java from Week 4, indicate 70 confirmed fatalities, 10 people missing, and 46 families displaced. About 48 houses sustained damages and one village road was affected. A joint SAR operation led by BNPB, BPBD, and BASARNAS remains ongoing, alongside sustained relief assistance and high-level government support as identification and assessments continue.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high 7-day average rainfall across Kalimantan, southern parts of Sumatra, Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara Islands, Maluku, and Papua (Indonesia), Sarawak (Malaysia), and eastern parts of Visayas and Mindanao (the Philippines). As of this reporting, there is no active tropical cyclone being monitored in the ASEAN region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Eight (8) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Dukono (alert level II), Semeru (alert level III), Ili Lewotolok (alert level III), and Ibu (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Taal (alert level 1), Mayon (alert level 3), Bulusan (alert level 1), and Kanlaon (alert level 2) volcanoes in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), wetter conditions are forecast over much of the northeastern Maritime Continent in the coming week, with no significant regional temperature anomalies expected. A moderate increase in the likelihood of very heavy rainfall is indicated for the southern Philippines. Based on the outlook initialised on 28 January, there is no increased chance of extreme warm conditions in the coming week. La Niña conditions persist but are expected to weaken in February–March 2026. The typical impact of La Niña on Southeast Asia is wetter-than-average rainfall conditions, including for much of the Maritime Continent during December to February.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: PHIVOLCS;
Various news agencies.
