REGIONAL SUMMARY:
In the fifth week of 2025, the ASEAN region experienced 34 disasters, including floods, landslides, storms, strong winds, and an earthquake, affecting Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. According to Indonesia’s Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB), floods, landslides, and wind-related disasters were reported in Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, East Java, West Kalimantan, North Kalimantan, North Maluku, West Nusa Tenggara, Riau, South Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, and North Sumatra, as well as a magnitude 5.1 earthquake in Kolaka Timur, South Sulawesi, Indonesia. In Malaysia, Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported flooding and landslides in Sabah and Sarawak. Meanwhile, in Thailand, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) reported storms and strong winds in Phetchabun and Kalasin.
HIGHLIGHT:
Since the beginning of January 2025, Indonesia has experienced heavy rainfall, leading to flooding, rain-induced landslides, and wind-related disasters. A recent notable event was the flash flood in Bima, West Nusa Tenggara, on 2 February 2025 at around 1800 HRS UTC+7. This flash flood, triggered by heavy rainfall over Kecamatan Wera, brought debris such as wood and rocks into community houses and roads. According to BNPB, this incident resulted in 2 fatalities, 6 missing persons, 99 displaced individuals, and 126 affected persons in Kecamatan Wera and Ambalawi. The damage reports include 7 houses swept away, 5 houses slightly damaged, 1 school damaged, 3 bridges damaged, and 40 hectares of agricultural areas affected. Search and rescue operations for the missing persons are ongoing, involving BNPB Bima and West Nusa Tenggara, the military, police, and BASARNAS. BPBD and other relevant agencies have taken necessary actions to address the situation, including mobilising logistics for the affected community.
Meanwhile, in Malaysia, according to NADMA, flooding and landslides in Sabah and Sarawak have resulted in 5 fatalities in Miri District. As of the report on 3 February at 1500 HRS UTC+7, more than 2.9K families (9.7K persons) remain displaced across 50 evacuation centers in Sarawak (Bintulu, Serian, Miri, Sibu, Samarahan, and Mukah) and Sabah (Tongod and Kinabatangan).
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high 7-day average rainfall across the Maritime Continent, which includes Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia (Sabah and Sarawak), and the southern and eastern parts of the Philippines. As of this report, four tropical cyclones (11S, VINCE, TALIAH, and 15P) and one area of convection (INVEST 92P) were being monitored. According to the latest forecast models, these tropical disturbances are not expected to make landfall in the ASEAN region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Nine (9) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Ibu (alert level III), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level III), Semeru (alert level II), and Dempo (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Kanlaon (alert level 3), Taal (alert level 1), and Mayon (alert level 1) volcanoes in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over the northeastern Maritime Continent; drier conditions are predicted over parts of the equatorial region; cooler than normal conditions are predicted over central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia; and warmer than normal temperature is predicted over the southeastern Maritime Continent. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance for very heavy rainfall event to occurs over parts of the Philippines and the southern Maritime Continent; and a small increase in chance for extreme hot conditions to occurs over Much of the Maritime Continent. La Niña or La Niña-like conditions predicted for February. La Niña conditions tend to bring wetter than average conditions to much of the Maritime Continent at the seasonal timescale during the Northeast Monsoon period.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Various news agencies.
