REGIONAL SUMMARY:
In the eighteenth week of 2025, the ASEAN region experienced a total of 18 disaster events, including volcanic eruptions, floods, storms, and wind-related disasters, affecting several Member States—namely Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. In Indonesia, Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported that multiple provinces, including Banten, Central Java, East Nusa Tenggara, Riau, Central Sulawesi, and North Sulawesi, were impacted. In Malaysia, Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) documented flooding in the states of Sabah and Pahang. The Philippines’ National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) recorded flooding in parts of Mindanao, along with a volcanic eruption at Mount Bulusan. Meanwhile, Thailand’s Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) reported flooding, storms, and wind-related disasters affecting numerous provinces, including Pattani, Lampang, Samut Sakhon, Phrae, Lamphun, Surin, Udon Thani, Kalasin, Nan, Kamphaeng Phet, Maha Sarakham, Sukhothai, Pathum Thani, Nakhon Sawan, Phetchabun, Loei, Nong Bua Lam Phu, Sakon Nakhon, Yasothon, Nong Khai, Sing Buri, Mae Hong Son, and Phitsanulok. In Viet Nam, Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) reported storm and wind-related impacts across the provinces of Son La, Kon Tum, An Giang, Bac Kan, and Kien Giang.
HIGHLIGHT:
According to the PHIVOLCS, a phreatic eruption occurred at Bulusan Volcano on 28 April 2025 at 03:36 HRS UTC+7, lasting approx. 24 minutes. The eruption produced a bent plume that rose to approximately 4,500 meters above the summit crater and drifted toward the west and southwest. Ashfall was reported in several barangays within Sorsogon Province. In response, PHIVOLCS raised the Alert Level to 1, indicating low-level unrest with the potential for further phreatic eruptions. As of 5 May, Bulusan Volcano remains at Alert Level 1. In the past 24 hours, PHIVOLCS reported 127 volcanic earthquakes, sulfur dioxide emissions of approximately 809 tonnes, and a 150-meter-high plume drifting southwest. According to the NDRRMC Progress Report No. 6 (as of 2 May), the eruption has affected approximately 30.3K families (142.7K individuals) across 84 barangays in Sorsogon with agricultural damages are estimated at USD 16.2K. A total of USD 472K worth assistance has been provided to affected communities by relevant authorities.
Additionally, updated impact information on the M7.7 Mandalay Earthquake in Myanmar, based on DDM Myanmar report as of 4 May at 18:30 hrs utc+7, indicates that a total of 3,785 fatalities have been recorded, with 92 individuals missing and 5,105 others injured. Approximately 499K people have been affected, including 39K displaced persons currently residing in 129 evacuation centres, and 271K individuals who have sought shelter with relatives. Reported damages include the approximately 12K houses (totally damaged) and over 39K houses (partially damaged), 2,642 schools, 357 hospitals, 6,868 offices and other buildings, as well as over 100 bridges and 403 roads. The estimated economic losses are approximately USD 1.9 billion. Data collection and validation are ongoing.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high 7-day average rainfall across Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. As of this reporting, there is no active tropical cyclone being monitored in the ASEAN region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Six (6) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Ibu (alert level II), Dukono (alert level II), Ili Lewotolok (alert level II), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level III), Semeru (alert level II), and Marapi (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Kanlaon (alert level 3), Taal (alert level 1), Mayon (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) volcanoes in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the northeastern Maritime Continent. For the regional assessment of extreme weather events, there is a low chance of very heavy rainfall to occurs over the ASEAN Region. Furthermore, there is a small increase in chance of extreme heat conditions to occurs over parts of the western and central maritime continent. La Niña conditions are now present. Based on the ASEANCOF-24 consensus outlook, ENSO neutral conditions are now present. However, the La Niña conditions earlier in the year may still have a moderating effect on temperatures in Southeast Asia.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Myanmar: DDM;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS, PAGASA, DSWD;
Thailand: DDPM;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.