REGIONAL SUMMARY:
During Week 1 of 2026, a total of 25 disaster events were reported across the ASEAN region, including floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related incidents that affected Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. According to the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB), these events were reported across Banten, Bengkulu, Gorontalo, Central Java, West Java, East Java, West Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, and Lampung. In Malaysia, Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported flooding in Sabah and Selangor. In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported impacts of the Shear Line in Aklan and Capiz in Region VI. In addition, BNPB continued to report the updated impacts from the severe flooding in northern parts of Sumatra, following the effects of the Northeast Monsoon and Tropical Cyclone SENYAR from Week 47.
HIGHLIGHT:
According to BNPB, as of 5 Jan 2026, the total number of fatalities from the widespread floods and landslides in Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra has reached 1,177 people, with 148 individuals still reported missing, and 242.2K displaced population. Damaged infrastructure and facilities, include 183.4K houses (52.6K heavily damaged, 45.9K moderately damaged, 85.9K slightly damaged), 215 health facilities, 3.2K educational facilities, 806 places of worship, 776 bridges, and 2.1K roads.
Response and recovery efforts remain ongoing, with authorities continuing to support affected communities through the delivery of essential services and the restoration of infrastructure. The AHA Centre continues to closely monitor the situation, in coordination with BNPB Indonesia, and remains ready to provide assistance should the need arise.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high 7-day average rainfall across Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia (Sabah and Sarawak), the Philippines, and Timor-Leste, with high rainfall concentrated in the equatorial and southern equatorial regions. As of 1700H UTC+7, Tropical Cyclone JENNA is being monitored in the Indian Ocean southwest of Lampung, Indonesia. (BMKG)
GEOPHYSICAL:
Six (6) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), the Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), and Thailand Meteorological Department (TMD). Mount Ili Lewotolok (alert level II), Semeru (alert level III), and Ibu (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Kanlaon (alert level 2), Taal (alert level 1), Mayon (alert level 2), and Bulusan (alert level 1) volcanoes in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the northeastern Maritime Continent while drier conditions are predicted over the western and parts of the central Maritime Continent. Cooler than usual temperatures are predicted for most of Mainland Southeast Asia. There is no increase in chance of very heavy rainfall in the coming week. La Niña conditions are present and are predicted to persist in January 2026. The typical impact of La Niña on Southeast Asia is wetter-than-average rainfall conditions, including for much of the Maritime Continent during December to February. The negative IOD event has weakened, with IOD neutral conditions predicted for January 2026.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: TMD;
Various news agencies.
