REGIONAL SUMMARY:
During the thirty-first week of 2025, the ASEAN region recorded 22 disaster events, including droughts, floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related incidents affecting Indonesia and Viet Nam. Additionally, disaster situations from previous weeks, driven by the combined effects of the Southwest Monsoon and Tropical Cyclones WIPHA, CO-MAY, and FRANCISCO, continued to impact Lao PDR, the Philippines, and Thailand. Myanmar also experienced flooding in several states and regions, including Bago, Kayin, Mon, and Shan, as a result of the Southwest Monsoon and Tropical Cyclone WIPHA, with the Department of Disaster Management (DDM) still conducting data collection and validation of the impacts. In Indonesia, Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported these events across Bengkulu, Jambi, West Java, Central Java, Lampung, Central Sulawesi, and South Sulawesi. Meanwhile, in Viet Nam, the Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) reported flooding, landslides, storms, and strong winds affecting Tuyen Quang, Phu Tho, Dien Bien, Son La, Hanoi, Ca Mau, and Cao Bang.
HIGHLIGHT:
In Lao PDR, NDMO reported that, as of 31 July, the combined effects of the Southwest Monsoon and Tropical Cyclone WIPHA have impacted more than 58K people (34K families), resulting in 9 fatalities and 4 missing persons across 10 provinces. Reported damages include 20 schools, 878 houses, 241 roads, 55 bridges, 114 livestock, 7,432 poultry, and approximately 21,530 hectares of agricultural land, with estimated losses amounting to around USD 13 million. The Social Welfare Department, as the Secretariat of the CDMC, is leading the national needs assessment in several affected provinces, in collaboration with the Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC), to identify urgent needs and support early recovery efforts. Based on the request from NDMO, the AHA Centre has deployed three ASEAN-ERAT members with expertise in Rapid Assessment and Information Management to support this nationally led Joint Needs and Early Recovery Assessment in the affected areas, scheduled to be conducted from 4 to 9 August 2025.
In the Philippines, NDRRMC reported that, as of 4 August, the combined effects of the Southwest Monsoon and Tropical Cyclones WIPHA, FRANCISCO, and CO-MAY continue to affect the country, with 299 areas still experiencing flooding across Regions 1, 3, and CALABARZON, while floodwaters have subsided in 1,035 areas and are receding in 40 others nationwide. A total of 254 cities and municipalities have declared a state of calamity. According to NDRRMC, approximately 2.4M families (8.6M people) have been affected across Regions 1, 2, CAR, 3, NCR, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, 5, 6, NIR, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, CARAGA, and BARMM. Around 91K individuals remain displaced in 821 evacuation centres, while 108K people are staying with relatives or outside designated centres. The reported toll includes 40 lives lost (37 pending validation), 33 injured (9 pending validation), and 8 missing (4 pending validation). Damages are estimated at USD 334 million while approximately USD 16.7 million worth of assistance has been provided by OCD, DSWD, LGUs, NGOs, and other partners. In close coordination with NDRRMC-OCD, the AHA Centre has dispatched 1,000 personal hygiene kits, 2,000 shelter toolkits, and 500 family kits from the DELSA Satellite Warehouse in Camp Aguinaldo, Quezon City, for distribution to the affected communities.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated high 7-day average rainfall concentrated across Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Viet Nam. Tropical Cyclones BAILU, KROSA, and 14W currently located over the western Pacific Ocean, are forecasted to move in a north-northwest direction, away from the ASEAN region. Additionally, INVEST 90S over Indian Ocean are under monitoring for its potential impacts (BMKG, PAGASA, JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Two (2) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), Myanmar’s Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), and Thai Meterological Department (TMD). Mount Semeru (alert level II), Ili Lewotolok (alert level IV), Ibu (alert level II), and Dukono (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Kanlaon (alert level 2), Taal (alert level 1), Mayon (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) volcanoes in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, drier conditions are predicted over central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia; while wetter conditions are expected across much of the Maritime Continent. Warmer-than-usual temperatures are predicted over much of Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extreme weather events, there is a moderate increase in chance of very heavy rainfall to occurs over northern Sulawesi and Maluku islands, and small increase in chance over much of the rest of the equatorial region. Additionally, extreme hot conditions are likely over southern Myanmar, parts of Thailand, much of central and southern Mainland Southeast Asia, as well as parts of the southern Maritime Continent.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Lao PDR: NDMO;
Myanmar: DDM, DMH;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM, TMD;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.
