REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the forty-eighth week of 2022, a total of 17 disasters (13 floods, 2 wind-related, 1 storm, and 1 volcano eruption) affected the region. Indonesia, Malaysia, Viet Nam, and Thailand have reportedly been affected by the disasters. Indonesia’s Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported floodings and tornadoes caused by moderate to heavy rainfall, strong wind, and overflowing of the rivers in Bali, Banten, Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, and East Kalimantan, and Semeru Volcano eruption in East Java, Indonesia. Malaysia’s National Disaster Management Agency (NADMA) reported flooding in Perlis, Perak, and Selangor. The Viet Nam Disaster Management Authority (VNDMA) reported flooding in Thua Thiên Hue. Thailand Department of Disaster Prevention & Mitigation (DDPM) reported severe local storms caused by high pressure or cold air mass in Kamphaeng Phet, Ang Thong, Sing Buri, Uthai Thani, and Suphan Bur.
HIGHLIGHT:
According to BNPB, volcanic activity was recorded on Semeru Volcano starting on 4 Dec. Volcanic ash from hot cloud avalanches was observed to be + 1,500 m above summit (+ 5,176 m above sea level). As of 5 Dec, BNPB reported that the impact of volcanic eruption has resulted in 499 families (2.5K persons) being evacuated into safer places. Currently, Mount Semeru is in Alert Level VI (the highest alert level for volcano in Indonesia). Under Alert Level IV, any activities within a radius of 8 km from the summit of Mount Semeru and 17 km in the southeast direction from the summit are PROHIBITED. The local disaster management authorities in East Java Province and other related agencies still conduct evacuation and impact assessments of the affected communities.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed medium to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across Sumatra, Java, Sulawesi, and Papua in Indonesia; Sabah Malaysia; northern Visayas and eastern Mindanao of the Philippines; Mekong River Delta, South Central Coast and Southeast Region of Viet Nam; and South Thailand. As of reporting, an area of convection (INVEST 96B) has persisted approximately 211 km south of Phuket, Thailand. Global model indicate steady development over the next two days as INVEST 96B tracks west-northwestward. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is LOW (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Four (4) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded in the region by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG). Mount Semeru (alert level IV), Ibu (alert level II), and Dukono (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 1), Bulusan (alert level 1), and Mayon Volcano (alert level 2) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to the Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are expected over much of eastern and southern Mainland Southeast Asia, and the Philippines. Warmer conditions are expected over much of Myanmar. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance for a very heavy rainfall event to occur in Coastal eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, southern and central mainland Southeast Asia, southern Philippines, and the southeastern Maritime Continent. La Niña conditions have been present. At the seasonal timescale, La Niña events tend to bring wetter conditions to much of the ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM
Viet Nam: VNDMA:
Various news agencies.
