REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the forty-fourth week of 2024, the ASEAN region experience 38 significant disasters, including droughts, floods, landslides, storms wind-related events, and volcanic activity. Indonesia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam were affected by these disasters. The Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia reported drought, flooding, storms, and wind-related events in West Sulawesi, West Java, North Sumatra, South Sulawesi, Riau, East Java, Lampung, Banten, West Nusa Tenggara, and Bangka Belitung. In addition, disaster due to volcanic activity was also reported in East Nusa Tenggara. In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported the combined impacts of Tropical Cyclone TRAMI from week 43 and Tropical Cyclone KONG-REY in 17 Regions. Lastly, the Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) reported flooding in Dong Nai in Southern Region.
HIGHLIGHT:
In Indonesia, the eruption of Mt. Lewotobi Laki-Laki in East Flores, East Nusa Tenggara resulted in loss of lives and severe damage to property. Following the increase volcanic activity, the Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) raised the status of Lewotobi Laki Laki to level IV (highest). According to the BNPB, as of 4 Nov, the eruption killed 10 and affected 10.3K persons in Kecamatan Wulanggitang and Kecamatan Ile Bura. Data collection is still ongoing. Authorities immediately conducted evacuation, rapid assessments, and search and rescue operations in the affected villages. The BNPB also immediately deployed teams to East Flores Regency to support the ongoing response operations.
In the Philippines, the NDRRMC reported that the combined impacts of Tropical Cyclone TRAMI from Week 43 and Tropical Cyclone KONG-REY has reached 8.6M affected people, 150 deaths, 143 injuries, and 20 missing. During the passage of TC KONG-REY over the waters of north of Luzon, PAGASA raised Tropical Cyclone Signal (TCWS) No. 5, the highest warning, over Batanes which suffered devastating effects of the super typhoon. Authorities conducted pre-emptive evacuations and immediately responded to the impacts of these tropical cyclones.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicates a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high across Brunei Darussalam, southern part of Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Southern Myanmar, Philippines, Southern Thailand, Central and Southern Viet Nam. Tropical Cyclone TRAMI and its remnant low pressure area contributed to the high average rainfall in Central Viet Nam. In the Philippines Tropical Cyclone KONG-REY and its trough brought heavy rainfall concentration over Luzon and western central parts of Luzon and Visayas. As of this reporting, PAGASA is monitoring Tropical Cyclone YINXING which is currently located east of Bicol Region and tracking northwestward. It is expected to turn westward toward extreme Northern Luzon which has also been recently affected by Tropical Cyclone KONG-REY. (PAGASA, JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Three (3) significant earthquake (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG). Mount Semeru (alert level II), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level IV), and Ibu (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 1), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 2), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to PVMBG and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over the southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight. Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent, apart from the southern region. There is a small increase in chance of very heavy rainfall continuing over central Viet Nam and southern PDR. While there are signs of heavy rainfall over the western Maritime Continent, the probability is low. Extreme hot conditions are predicted to persist over northern Myanmar, however, the region tends to be cooler during this time of the year. For the Maritime Continent, extreme hot conditions are predicted to persist over the Philippines, the equatorial region and the southeastern Maritime Continent in in the coming week. La Niña conditions are likely from October – November 2024 onwards.
.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Viet Nam: VDDMA, NCHMF;
Various news agencies.
