REGIONAL SUMMARY:
During the twenty-seventh week of 2026, a total of 18 disaster events were reported across the ASEAN region, including droughts, floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related disasters in Indonesia, Thailand, and Viet Nam. In Indonesia, the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported disaster events in West Java, Central Java, North Sumatra, and East Java. Meanwhile, in Thailand, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) reported storms, floods, and wind-related disasters in Chiang Rai, Ubon Ratchathani, Rayong, Chanthaburi, Trat, Satun, Krabi, and Nakhon Phanom. Lastly, in Viet Nam, the Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) reported storms, wind-related disasters, flooding, and landslides in Quang Ninh, Lao Cai, and Son La.
HIGHLIGHT:
In Viet Nam, VDDMA reported the impacts of Tropical Cyclone MAYSAK and associated heavy rainfall across Quang Ninh, Lao Cai, and Son La provinces. Damage assessments indicate that 154 houses were impacted, which includes 96 homes in Quang Ninh that sustained roof damage and 58 affected houses in Lao Cai and Son La. Agricultural and aquaculture impacts include more than 1K hectares of aquaculture farms and 40 hectares of rice damaged in Quang Ninh, alongside 40.4 hectares of flooded crops in Lao Cai and Son La. Infrastructure impacts involved landslides at 22 main road points as well as damage to rural roads. The preliminary estimated economic loss is about 760K USD. Authorities are currently undertaking recovery operations to clear debris, assist residents, and restore power outages in the affected wards of Quang Ninh.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high seven-day average rainfall across Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Northern portions of Sumatra and Kalimantan in Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. The highest rainfall intensity concentrated across the western section of the Philippines towards Viet Nam is consistent with the development of Tropical Cyclone MAYSAK (previously INVEST 96W). Conversely, lighter precipitation and generally drier conditions were observed across the southern Maritime Continent. Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone BAVI is being monitored approximately 1,950 km east of Southeastern Luzon as it moves west-northwestward towards the Philippine Sea (PAGASA).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Three (3) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Anak Krakatau (alert level III), Semeru (alert level III), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level III), Ili Lewotolok (alert level II), and Ibu (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Taal (alert level 1), Mayon (alert level 3), Bulusan (alert level 1), and Kanlaon (alert level 2) volcanoes in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), wetter conditions are predicted over much of the northern half of Mainland Southeast Asia, while drier conditions are expected across much of the southern ASEAN region, particularly over the central and eastern equatorial areas. Warmer-than-usual temperatures are anticipated across much of the Maritime Continent. There is a small increase in the chance of very heavy rainfall over central and western Myanmar and southwestern Philippines. Meanwhile, extreme hot conditions are very predicted over the northern Philippines, eastern Borneo, northern Sulawesi, Maluku Islands, and northern Papua, with a moderate chance of extreme heat across most of the remaining Maritime Continent and southern Mainland Southeast Asia. The persistence of El Niño conditions is expected to continue through the second half of 2026, with strong conditions likely from August-September 2026, bringing typically drier weather to much of the Maritime Continent.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); ASEAN Earthquake Information Centre (AEIC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.
