REGIONAL SUMMARY:
In the sixth week of 2025, the ASEAN region experienced 42 disasters, including floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related disasters, affecting Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. According to Indonesia’s Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB), these events were reported in Banten, Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, East Java, West Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, Lampung, Maluku, East Nusa Tenggara, and South Sulawesi. In Malaysia, the Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported flooding in Johor, alongside ongoing flooding situations in Sabah and Sarawak. Meanwhile, in the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) and the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) reported flooding in MIMAROPA and Eastern Visayas.
HIGHLIGHT:
BNPB of Indonesia has reported a series of disasters, including flooding, storms, landslides, and wind-related incidents, across the Java Islands since the beginning of the 6th week of 2025. These events have affected the provinces of Banten, Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, and East Java. According to BNPB, approximately 31K families (105K persons) have been affected, with over 300 people displaced in various cities/municipalities including Serang, Serang City, and Cilegon City in Banten Province; Jakarta; Indramayu, Cianjur, Karawang, Bekasi City, Bekasi, and Garut in West Java Province; Sragen, Tegal City, Boyolali, Jepara, Kudus, Kendal, Pati, and Semarang City in Central Java; and Magetan, Batu, Situbondo, and Probolinggo in East Java Province. The reported damages include 31.6K houses, 5 bridges, 11 roads, 7 educational facilities, 2 health facilities, 32 public facilities, and 3 places of worship. Meanwhile, in the Philippines, the NDRRMC has reported flooding since 9 February in MIMAROPA, affecting and displacing 472 families (1.9K persons), with 1.2K persons of whom are in 9 evacuation centers). As of the report on 9 February at 1700 HRS UTC+7, the flooding in 13 areas has reportedly receded. Relevant authorities have taken necessary actions to address the situation.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high 7-day average rainfall across the Maritime Continent, which includes Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia (including the tip of Peninsular, Sabah, and Sarawak), and the Philippines. As of this report, four tropical disturbances (TC VINCE, TC TALIAH, INVEST 96S, and INVEST 95P) are being monitored. According to the latest forecast models, these four disturbances are not anticipated to make landfall within the landmass of the ASEAN region. Additionally, another weather disturbance north of Sabah, Malaysia (INVEST 93W), is currently being investigated for potential development into a tropical cyclone (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Nine (9) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), and Thai Meterological Department (TMD). Mount Ibu (alert level III), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level III), Semeru (alert level II), and Marapi (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Kanlaon (alert level 3), Taal (alert level 1), and Mayon (alert level 1) volcanoes in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, drier conditions are predicted over parts of the equatorial region; and warmer than normal temperature is predicted over the southeastern Maritime Continent. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a low chance for very heavy rainfall event to occurs over ASEAN Region; and a small increase in chance for extreme hot conditions to occurs over much of the eastern Maritime Continent. La Niña conditions are now present, with a transition to ENSO neutral predicted by April-May 2025. La Niña conditions tend to bring wetter than average conditions to much of the Maritime Continent at the seasonal timescale during the Northeast Monsoon period.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS, DSWD;
Thailand: TMD;
Various news agencies.
