REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the forty-fifth week of 2024, the ASEAN region experience 27 significant disasters, including floods, landslides, storms, wind-related events, and volcanic activity. Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam were affected by these disasters. The Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia reported flooding, landslides, and wind-related events in East Java, West Java, West Nusa Tenggara, South Sulawesi, Central Java, and North Sumatra. In addition, the volcanic activity reported in East Nusa Tenggara from Week 44 remained active this week. In Malaysia, the Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported flooding in Pahang. In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) continued to report the combined impacts of Tropical Cyclones TRAMI and KONG-REY in 17 Regions from weeks 43 and 44, in addition to the impacts of Tropical Cyclone YINXING in Regions 1, 2, and CAR this week. Lastly, the Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) reported flooding, storms, and tornadoes in Quang Binh, Quang Tri, Thua Thien Hue and Lam Don in Central and Southern Regions.
HIGHLIGHT:
In the Philippines, the NDRRMC reported the impacts of Tropical Cyclone YINXING which made two landfalls in Cagayan, Northern Luzon and caused severe damage in Regions 1, 2, and CAR. According to NDRRMC’s Situation Report, as of 11 Nov 0700H UTC+7, TC YINXING affected 374.2K persons (107.3K families), with one reported injury and one missing person. In addition, the NDRRMC continues to respond to the combined impacts of Tropical Cyclone TRAMI from Week 43 and Tropical Cyclone KONG-REY from Week 44, which has reached 9.6M affected people (about 2.4M families), 160 deaths, 135 injuries, and 21 missing across 17 Regions. According to NDRRMC’s Situation Report on 10 Nov, about 617K people remains displaced. Through the leadership of NDRRRMC-OCD, local government authorities conducted pre-emptive evacuations in high risk areas. As of this reporting time, NDRRMC is also actively monitoring and responding to the impacts of Tropical Cyclone TORAJI which has made landfall over Isabela this morning and has proceeded to traverse mainland Luzon, bringing intense to torrential rainfall and typhoon-force winds across Northern Luzon. NDRRRMC-OCD, relevant agencies, and local government units have heightened preparedness and response measures as PAGASA warns of two other tropical cyclones which are expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility this coming week.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicates a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high across Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia (Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua), Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Southern Thailand, Central and Southern Viet Nam. Notable concentration of very high average rainfall in Northern Luzon in the Philippines can be attributed to Tropical Cyclone YINXING which is now still active and being monitored over the Viet Nam East Sea. As of this reporting, PAGASA and NCHMF are also monitoring Tropical Cyclone TORAJI which has passed through mainland Luzon and is now coursing toward the Viet Nam East Sea. In addition, PAGASA is also closely monitoring Tropical Cyclones 27W and MAN-YI which are currently located east of the Philippines. These two tropical cyclones are expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility within this week. (NCHMF, PAGASA, JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Four (4) significant earthquake (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG). Mount Semeru (alert level II), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level IV), Marapi (level III), Dukono (level II), and Ibu (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 1), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 2), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to PVMBG and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over the southern Maritime Continent. Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent, apart from the southern region, and southern coastal parts of Mainland Southeast Asia. For Mainland Southeast Asia, there is a small increase in chance of extreme hot conditions for northern Myanmar, and parts of northern Lao PDR, Thailand and Vietnam. For the Maritime Continent, there is a small increase in chance of extreme hot conditions over parts of the Philippines, the equatorial region, and the southern Maritime Continent (west Java, Nusa Tenggara, Papua). La Niña conditions developing, with La Niña conditions likely during November 2024 – February 2025.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Viet Nam: VDDMA, NCHMF;
Various news agencies.
