REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the forty-ninth week of 2022, a total of 17 disasters (11 floods, 2 wind-related, 2 landslides, 1 earthquake, and 1 local storm) affected the region. Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam have reportedly been affected by the disasters. Indonesia’s Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported floodings and landslide caused by moderate to heavy rainfall, tidal wave, and overflowing of the rivers; tornado caused by the strong wind; and earthquake in North Sumatra, Bengkulu, West Java, Central Java, and Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Malaysia’s National Disaster Management Agency (NADMA) reported flooding events in Johor, Kelantan, Pahang, Perak, and Terengganu. The Philippines’ National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported tropical cyclone and flood events in Agusan del Norte and Aklan. Thailand’s Department of Disaster Prevention & Mitigation (DDPM) reported a flooding event caused by monsoons in Prachuap Khiri Khan, Chumphon, Ranong, Nakhon Si Thammarat Surat Thani, and Phatthalung. The Viet Nam Disaster Management Authority (VNDMA) reported flooding and landslide events in Binh Dinh.
HIGHLIGHT:
According to DDPM, a flooding event caused by monsoons happened in the southern region of Thailand with 6 provinces affected on 5 Dec. As of 12 Dec, DDPM reported that the impact of flooding has resulted in 31.3K families (156.6K persons) affected and 31.3K houses inundated. Meanwhile in Indonesia, according to the BNPB, 10 disasters were recorded from the previous week including 7 floodings, 1 landslide, 1 earthquake, and 1 tornado. BNPB reported 12.9K families (60.6K persons) and 12.9K houses affected. The local disaster management authorities have carried out necessary actions to address the situation.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed medium to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across Sumatra, Java, and Papua in Indonesia; Peninsular Malaysia; Philippines; Singapore; and South Thailand. As of reporting, there is a tropical cyclone, being referred to as Tropical Storm PAKHAR (local name: Rosal). Based on available data, TS PAKHAR is located approximately 860 km East of Extreme Northern Luzon. TS PAKHAR is less likely to bring heavy rains directly to the country. It is forecasted to move generally northeastward and will be rapidly weakening shortly after the 24-hour (JTWC, PAGASA).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Eight (8) significant earthquakes (M?5.0) were recorded in Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level III), Anak Krakatau (alert level III), Merapi (alert level III), and Ili Lewotolok (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 1), Bulusan (alert level 1), and Mayon Volcano (alert level 2) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to the Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), wetter conditions are expected over parts of eastern and southwestern Maritime Continent. Drier conditions are expected over much of central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia. Cooler conditions are expected over much of central and southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance to occur in central parts of Mainland Southeast Asia, and a moderate chance in Viet Nam and southern Borneo for a very heavy rainfall event; a moderate increase in chance for extreme hot conditions to occur in Philippines and southeast and east of Indonesia. La Niña conditions have been present. At the seasonal timescale, La Niña events tend to bring wetter conditions to much of the Maritime Continent. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also present. Negative IOD events tend to bring wetter conditions to much of the ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Viet Nam: VNDMA;
Various news agencies.
