REGIONAL SUMMARY:
During the second week of 2026, a total of 54 disaster events were reported across the ASEAN region, including volcanic activity, floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related disasters affecting Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. In Indonesia, Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported incidents across Banten, Bengkulu, Jambi, West Java, Central Java, East Java, West Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, North Kalimantan, Lampung, North Maluku, West Nusa Tenggara, Riau, West Sulawesi, North Sulawesi, and South Sulawesi. In Malaysia, Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported flooding in Sabah and Sarawak. In the Philippines, National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported impacts from a shear line in Region V, as well as increased activity at Mayon Volcano, which remains at Alert Level 3. In addition, BNPB continued to report updated impacts from the severe flooding in northern Sumatra, which has persisted since Week 47 of 2025.
HIGHLIGHT:
In the Philippines, on 6 January 2026, PHIVOLCS raised the alert status of Mayon Volcano to Alert Level 3, indicating an increased tendency towards a hazardous eruption. According to the NDRRMC, this situation has affected a total of 1,131 families (4,141 persons), of whom 1,116 families (4,092 persons) are being assisted in 14 evacuation centres, while 15 families (48 persons) are being assisted outside evacuation centre.
In Indonesia, flash floods occurred in Sitaro Regency, North Sulawesi, following heavy rainfall on 5 January at 0130H UTC+7. According to BNPB, the incident resulted in 17 fatalities, two missing persons, and 19 injured, with a further 18 individuals receiving treatment or referrals at health centres or hospitals. A total of 322 families (950 persons) were displaced to four evacuation centres. Reported damages include 201 houses, three educational facilities, five bridges, several roads, an office, and other infrastructure. BNPB has also continued to update the impacts of widespread flooding and landslides in Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra since the Week of 47 of 2025. As of 12 Jan 2026, the total number of fatalities has reached 1,180, with 145 individuals reported missing and approximately 238K people displaced. Damaged infrastructure includes 175K houses (53.4K heavily damaged, 45.1K moderately damaged, and 76.6K slightly damaged), 215 health facilities, approximately 3.2K educational facilities, 803 places of worship, 776 bridges, and around 2.1K roads. The AHA Centre continues to closely monitor the situation and remains ready to provide assistance should the need arise.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high 7-day average rainfall across Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Timor-Leste, and southern Thailand. As of this report, tropical disturbance INVEST 91W, located over the western Pacific Ocean, approximately 1,350 km west-southwest of Mindanao, Philippines, is being monitored for its potential development and possible impacts on the ASEAN region (PAGASA).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Six (6) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Ili Lewotolok (alert level II), Semeru (alert level III), and Ibu (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Kanlaon (alert level 2), Taal (alert level 1), Mayon (alert level 3), and Bulusan (alert level 1) volcanoes in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, drier conditions are predicted over the western and parts of the central Maritime Continent. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is no increase in chance of very heavy rainfall, while a slight increase in chance of extreme hot conditions is expected over parts of the eastern Maritime Continent, including Sulawesi and parts of Papua. La Niña conditions are present and are predicted to persist in January 2026. The typical impact of La Niña on Southeast Asia is wetter-than-average rainfall conditions, including for much of the Maritime Continent during December to February. The negative IOD event has weakened, with IOD neutral conditions predicted for January 2026.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS, PAGASA
Various news agencies.
