REGIONAL SUMMARY:
In the nineteenth week of 2025, the ASEAN region experienced a total of 38 disaster events, including floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related disasters, affecting several Member States—namely Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. In Indonesia, Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported that multiple provinces, including Gorontalo, Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, East Java, Yogyakarta, Central Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, and South Sulawesi, were impacted. The Philippines’ National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) recorded flooding in Region XII. Meanwhile, Thailand’s Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) reported flooding, storms, and wind-related disasters affecting numerous provinces, including Lampang, Kamphaeng Phet, Maha Sarakham, Uthai Thani, Samut Prakan, Nakhon Ratchasima, Sa Keo, Nan, Tak, Nong Bua Lamphu, Phayao, Phetchabun, Phichit, Nong Kai, Nakhon Phanom, Sakon Nakhon, Chaiyaphum, and Sukothai. In Viet Nam, Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) reported floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related disasters across the provinces of Lao Cai, Son La, Tuyen Quang, Hoa Binh, Quang Tri, Bin Duong, Yen Bai, and Phu Tho.
HIGHLIGHT:
In the nineteenth week of 2025, flooding was reported across parts of Kalimantan, specifically in Central and East Kalimantan, as documented by BNPB. According to the reports, the flooding affected approximately 3K families, or around 12K individuals. Reported damages include roughly 2.5K houses, as well as 178 roads and other public facilities. In response, relevant government agencies have implemented necessary measures to manage the situation and extend support to the affected communities.
Additionally, updated impact information on the M7.7 Mandalay Earthquake in Myanmar, based on DDM Myanmar report as of 12 May at 18:30 hrs utc+7, indicates that a total of 3,721 fatalities have been recorded, with 86 individuals missing and 5,104 others injured. Approximately 507,989 people have been affected, including 34.2K displaced persons currently residing in 122 evacuation centres, and 266.5K individuals who have sought shelter with relatives. Reported damages include the approximately 11.6K houses (totally damaged) and over 39.6K houses (partially damaged), 2,604 schools, 754 hospitals, 7,270 offices and other buildings, as well as over 100 bridges and 412 roads. The estimated economic losses are approximately USD 1.9 billion. Data collection and validation are ongoing.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high 7-day average rainfall across Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Tropical Cyclone 32P, currently located over the Arafura Sea, is expected to bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to South Papua (BMKG). 32P is not anticipated to make landfall on any major landmass. Model guidance agrees on the westward track and no indication for redevelopment (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Seven (7) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), Myanmar’s Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), and Thailand Meterological Department (TMD), and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Ibu (alert level II), Dukono (alert level II), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level III), Semeru (alert level II), Raung (alert level II), and Marapi (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Kanlaon (alert level 3), Taal (alert level 1), Mayon (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) volcanoes in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over much of Mainland Southeast Asia and parts of the southern Maritime Continent; warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over parts of the central and western Maritime Continent. For the regional assessment of extreme weather events, there is a moderate increase in chance of very heavy rainfall occurring over Java, with a small increase in chance of such events in western parts of Mainland Southeast Asia. Additionally, there is a small increase in the chance of extreme heat conditions over parts of Sumatra. Based on the ASEANCOF-24 consensus outlook, ENSO neutral conditions are now present. However, the La Niña conditions earlier in the year may still have a moderating effect on temperatures in Southeast Asia.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Myanmar: DDM, DMH;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM, TMD;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.
