REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the sixth week of 2023, a total of 26 disasters (earthquake, floods, landslide, and wind-related) affected the region. Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines have reportedly been affected. Indonesia’s Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported flooding, landslide, and wind-related disaster events caused by moderate to heavy rainfall, overflowing of rivers, and strong winds in Aceh, Banten, Gorontalo, West Java, Central Java, East Java, South Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, Maluku, West Nusa Tenggara, and Central Sulawesi, and M5.4 Earthquake in Papua, Indonesia. Malaysia’s Agensi Pengurusan Bencana (NADMA) reported flooding caused by heavy rainfall in Johor, Kedah, Kelantan, Pahang, and Terengganu States. The Philippines’ National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) has also reported flooding caused by the localized thunderstorm in Lanao del Norte.
HIGHLIGHT:
According to NADMA, flooding events have impacted 5 states in Malaysia. As of 7 Feb, at 1200 HRS UTC+7, NADMA reported that the floodings have resulted in 1.5K families (5.2K persons) affected and displaced to 35 evacuation centres. As of 13 Feb, at 1500 HRS UTC+7, all internally displaced persons (IDPs) have returned to their homes. Meanwhile, in Indonesia, flooding events have impacted 4 regencies in East Java. According to BNPB, as of 13 Feb, at 1200 HRS UTC+7, a total of 6.3K families (13K persons) were affected and 4.7K houses inundated. Local disaster management authorities have carried out necessary actions to address the situation.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed medium to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across Indonesia and Malaysia. As of reporting, there are areas of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 91P and Tropical Cyclone being referred as TC FREDDY. Based on available data, Invest 91P is located approximately at 895 km south of Merauke, Indonesia. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low. Meanwhile, FREDDY is located approximately at 1,400 km southwest of Tinjil Island, Indonesia. (JTWC)
GEOPHYSICAL:
Five (5) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded in the region by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level III), Marapi (alert level II), Kerinci (level II) in Indonesia, and Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 1), and Mayon Volcano (alert level 2) in the Philippines according to the Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are expected over much of northeastern Maritime Continent and southeastern coast of Mainland Southeast Asia. Drier conditions are predicted over parts of the central Maritime Continent. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance for a heavy rainfall event to occur in the parts of the Philippines and coastal parts of southern and eastern Viet Nam; and small increase in chance of extreme hot conditions in parts of the eastern Maritime Continent. La Niña conditions have been present, with signs of weakening. At the seasonal timescale, La Niña events tend to bring wetter conditions to much of the ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Various news agencies.
