REGIONAL SUMMARY:
During the twenty-eighth week of 2026, a total of 20 disaster events were reported across the ASEAN region, including droughts, floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related disasters in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. In Indonesia, the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported drought in West Java, Central Java, South Sulawesi, North Sulawesi, and East Java. In Malaysia, the Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported flooding in Melaka. In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related disasters in Regions II, III, IVB, VI, NIR, IX, X, XI, XII, and BARMM. In Thailand, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) reported storms and wind-related disasters in Nakhon Phanom. Lastly, the Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) reported storms, wind-related disasters, flooding, and landslides in Lai Chau, Dien Bien, Lao Cai, Son La, Tuyen Quang, Thai Nguyen, and Can Tho in Northern and Southern Viet Nam.
HIGHLIGHT:
In the Philippines, the combined effects of Tropical Cyclone BAVI and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon triggered widespread flooding, landslides, and strong winds, affecting about 738K people (154K families) across Regions II, III, IVB, VI, NIR, IX, X, XI, XII, and BARMM. As of 13 July 2026, the NDRRMC reported 21 fatalities, 8 injuries, and 16 missing persons. A total of 659 houses were damaged, including 274 totally damaged and 385 partially damaged. The disaster also disrupted transportation, damaged critical infrastructure and agricultural areas, and displaced more than 15K people. Authorities continue to conduct search and rescue operations, deliver emergency relief, and carry out damage assessments while maintaining heightened monitoring of flood- and landslide-prone areas as monsoon conditions persist.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high seven-day average rainfall across Cambodia, Lao PDR, portions of Peninsular Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. The highest rainfall intensity concentrated across the western section of the Philippines is consistent with the development of Tropical Cyclone BAVI and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon. Conversely, lighter precipitation and generally drier conditions were observed across the southern Maritime Continent. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression HAISHEN (INVEST 97W) is being monitored approximately 1,230 km east of Eastern Visayas as it moves northwestward approaching the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAGASA).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Eleven (11) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Anak Krakatau (alert level III), Semeru (alert level III), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level III), Ili Lewotolok (alert level II), Karangetang (alert level II), and Ibu (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Taal (alert level 1), Mayon (alert level 3), Bulusan (alert level 1), and Kanlaon (alert level 2) volcanoes in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), drier-than-usual conditions are expected across much of the southern ASEAN region over the next fortnight, with the strongest likelihood of below-average rainfall over the central and eastern equatorial region. Warmer-than-usual temperatures are forecast across much of the Maritime Continent, as well as most of central and southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia. There is a moderate increase in the likelihood of extreme heat over southern Sumatra, southern Borneo, and southern Sulawesi, while a slight increase in the likelihood of extreme hot conditions is expected across most of the Maritime Continent and parts of southern and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, El Niño conditions are expected to persist throughout the second half of 2026, with models indicating a likely strengthening between August and September. These conditions are typically associated with drier-than-normal weather across much of the Maritime Continent.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); ASEAN Earthquake Information Centre (AEIC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: PAGASA, PHIVOLCS, PAGASA;
Thailand: DDPM;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.
