REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the nineteenth-week of 2024, the ASEAN region experienced 37 disasters, including floods, landslides, storms, wind-related disasters, and drought. Indonesia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam were reportedly affected by these disasters. According to the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia, floods and landslides were reported in Aceh, West Kalimantan, Riau, South Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, West Sumatra, and South Sumatra. In Myanmar, Department of Disaster Management (DDM) reported drought in Yangon. In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported landslides in Surigao del Norte. Meanwhile, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) in Thailand reported storms and wind-related incidents in Phetchabun, Kalasin, Maha Sarakham, Lop Buri, Lampang, Surin, Samut Prakan, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Chiang Rai, Lamphun, Kamphaeng Phet, Nong Bua Lam Phu, Pathum Thani, and Prachin Buri, and Chiang Mai. Lastly, the Viet Nam Disaster and the Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) documented flooding, storms, and winds in Long An, Dong Nai, Lao Cai, Cao Bang, Thai Nguyen, Son La, Dien Bien, and Lang Son.
HIGHLIGHT:
In Indonesia, as reported by the BNPB, heavy rainfall have triggered flooding and landslides in West Sumatra since 11 May at 2100 HRS UTC+7. This disasters also includes the cold lava flood from Marapi Volcano. As of 13 May at 1750 HRS UTC+7, these disasters have claimed 50 lives with 27 people still missing and 37 injured. The impact has been widespread, affecting 1.5K families and displacing 3.4K people across various cities/regencies including Agam, Padang Panjang, Tanah Datar, Padang Pariaman, Limapuluh Kota, and Padang in West Sumatra. The reported damages encompass 1.1K houses, 23 bridges, 9 educational facilities, 1 health facility, 4 places of worship, and 471 hectares of agricultural area. BPBD and relevant agencies continue to conduct rapid assessment and evacuation operations as well as search and rescue operations. On 13 May, the Head of BNPB Indonesia, Lieutenant General TNI Suharyanto, is scheduled to visit the affected area and hold a coordination meeting on the ongoing emergency response efforts. Local disaster management authorities are actively mobilising resources to address the situation in West Sumatra.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicates a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high across Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia (Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua), Lao PDR, Malaysia (Peninsular, Sabah, and Sarawak), the Philippines (Northern Luzon and Mindanao), Thailand, and Viet Nam (Northern and Southern). As of reporting, there is no active tropical cyclone advisories for the ASEAN Region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Seven (7) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level III), Marapi (alert level III), Ili Lewotolok (alert level III), and Ibu (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 1), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, drier conditions are predicted over much of the southern and northeastern Maritime Continent; wetter conditions are predicted over most of the equatorial region; warmer than usual temperature is predicted to persist over most of the Maritime Continent and parts of Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance for very heavy rainfall conditions to occurs over parts the equatorial region; and there is a moderate increase in chance over parts of western and eastern Maritime Continent, western and southern coastal parts of Mainland Southeast Asia, and very likely over much of the southern and northeastern Maritime Continent. An El Niño is weakening and predicted to transition to ENSO neutral conditions during May 2024. At the seasonal timescale during March to May, El Niño events typically bring warmer conditions to much of the ASEAN region and drier conditions to much of the northern ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Myanmar: DDM;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.
