REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the forty-first week of 2024, the ASEAN region experience 34 significant disasters, including floods, landslides, and winds-related events. Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Viet Nam were affected by these disasters. Additionally, the impacts of Southwest Monsoon and Tropical Cyclone YAGI are still being reported in Thailand. The Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia reported flooding and landslides in Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, South Sulawesi, and Central Sulawesi. In Malaysia, Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported flooding and landslides in Johor, Kedah, Perak, Perlis, and Pahang. In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) has reported the flooding in Nueva Ecija. Meanwhile, according to Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) Southwest Monsoon and YAGI in Thailand has impacted 45 provinces since week 33 of 2024. Lastly, Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) also reported strong winds in Kien Giang.
HIGHLIGHT:
In Indonesia, heavy rainfall and overflowing of the rivers in the northern parts of Sumatra have led to widespread flooding and landslides across several cities and regencies in Aceh and North Sumatra Provinces. The affected areas in Aceh Province include Aceh Tengah, Nagan Raya, Subulussalam, Aceh Selatan, Aceh Tenggara, Aceh Timur, Aceh Tamiang, and Aceh Singkil. In North Sumatra Province, the impacted regions are Binjai, Tebing Tinggi, Deli Serdang, Karo, Labuhanbatu, Serdang Bedagai, Mandailing Natal, Batu Bara, Tapanuli Selatan, Medan, Labuhanbatu Selatan, Langkat, Padang Lawas, and Asahan. According to BNPB, this situation has resulted in the loss of four lives, with two individuals reported missing. Additionally, 19.1K families (69.1K people) have been affected, and 446 individuals have been displaced. The damages include around 13.9K houses, 6 bridges, 16 roads, 7 schools, 1 health facility, 7 places of worship, and 765 hectares of agricultural areas.
Meanwhile, in Thailand, the DDPM has reported that the widespread flooding and landslides caused by the Southwest Monsoon and Tropical Cyclone YAGI since week 33 of 2024 have expanded to 45 provinces. These events have affected 253.5K households, with 52 fatalities and 28 injuries. As of 11 October, a total of 15 provinces, including Chiang Rai, Chiang Mai, Lamphun, Lampang, Tak, Phitsanulok, Nakhon Sawan, Sukhothai, Udon Thani, Chainat, Singburi, Suphanburi, Ang Thong, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, and Nakhon Pathom, remain impacted, affecting 51.9K families. Relevant government authorities have carried out necessary actions to address the situation.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicates a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high across Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia (Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua), Malaysia, Myanmar (northern, central, and lower parts), Philippines, Thailand (central to southern), and Viet Nam (central and southern). As of this reporting period, two Tropical Disturbances INVEST 96B and 93S over Indian Ocean currently under monitoring for its potential for the development into a significant tropical cyclone (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Four (4) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), Myanmar’s Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), and Thailand Meteorological Department (TMD). Mount Semeru (alert level II), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level III), and Ibu (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 1), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 2), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over southwestern and central parts of Mainland Southeast Asia and much of the southern ASEAN region; and warmer than usual temperature is predicted over much of northern Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance of very heavy rainfall over southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia and parts of the eastern equatorial region; and small increase in chance over Southern and western Maritime Continent and parts of the Philippines, and moderate increase in chance over much of Mainland Southeast Asia for extreme hot conditions. La Niña conditions are likely from October – November 2024 onwards.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Myanmar: DMH;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM, TMD;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.