REGIONAL SUMMARY:
During Week 50 of 2025, a total of 35 disaster events were reported across the ASEAN region, including floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related incidents that affected Indonesia and Malaysia. In Indonesia, Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) recorded events across West Kalimantan, Bangka Belitung Islands, East Java, East Nusa Tenggara, South Kalimantan, Southeast Sulawesi, North Sumatra, Riau, West Papua, West Sumatra, South Sumatra, Papua, Central Java, West Nusa Tenggara, South Lampung, Jambi, Jakarta, West Java, and Bali. Meanwhile, in Malaysia, the Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA). In addition, both Thailand’s Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) and Indonesia’s BNPB have continued to report the impacts from the severe flooding in southern Thailand and northern parts of Sumatra, respectively, following the effects of the Northeast Monsoon and Tropical Cyclone SENYAR from Week 47.
HIGHLIGHT:
According to BNPB, as of 14 Dec 2025, the total number of fatalities resulting from the widespread floods and landslides in Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra has reached 1,016 people, with 206 individuals still reported missing and around 7K people injured. The disaster has caused extensive damage to housing and public infrastructure, including 186.5K houses, 219 health facilities, 967 educational facilities, 434 places of worship, 290 office buildings, 145 bridges, and approximately 1.6K other public facilities, significantly disrupting access and essential services.
BNPB and local authorities continue to carry out coordinated emergency operations, including logistics distribution and service delivery to affected communities. Access restoration efforts, particularly road and bridge repairs, are ongoing, while national cluster support remains active to sustain response operations and support early recovery. The AHA Centre continues to closely monitor the situation, in coordination with BNPB Indonesia, and remains ready to provide assistance should the need arise.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high 7-day average rainfall across Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines (eastern Luzon and the Visayas), Timor-Leste, and southern Thailand, with high rainfall concentrated in the equatorial and southern equatorial regions. These conditions were associated with Tropical Cyclone BAKUNG (formerly INVEST 91S) and INVESTs 93S and 95S. As of 15 Dec at 1600H (UTC+7), TC BAKUNG was located about 1,510 km southwest of West Sumatra, while INVEST 93S and INVEST 95S were being monitored south of Central Java and the Aru Islands, respectively (BMKG).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Two (2) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), Myanmar’s Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), and Thailand Meteorological Department (TMD). Mount Marapi (alert level II), Semeru (alert level III), and Ibu (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Kanlaon (alert level 2), Taal (alert level 1), Mayon (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) volcanoes in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, there is a low likelihood that the risk of very heavy rainfall will increase in the coming week, and no increased chance of extreme heat is expected. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which was present in November, is now showing signs of weakening. La Niña conditions are currently present and are forecast to persist through January–February 2026. Typically, La Niña brings wetter-than-average rainfall across Southeast Asia, including much of the Maritime Continent, particularly during the December to February period.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Myanmar: DMH;
Philippines: PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM, TMD;
Various news agencies.
