REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the twenty-eighth week of 2024, the ASEAN region experienced 28 disasters, including floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related disasters. Indonesia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam were reportedly affected by these disasters. According to the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia, flooding, storms, and wind-related disasters were reported in Gorontalo, West Java, East Kalimantan, Maluku, Central Sulawesi, West Sumatra, South Sumatra, and North Sumatra. In Myanmar, Department of Disaster Management (DDM) reported flooding in Magway. The Philippines’ National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported flooding, landslides, storms, and strong winds in Region VI and VII and several regions over Mindanao as the effects of Southwest Monsoon. Meanwhile, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) Thailand reported storms and strong winds in Surin and Nakhon Si Thammarat. Lastly, the Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) documented storms, floods, and landslides in Ha Giang, Dien Bien, and Ca Mau
HIGHLIGHT:
In the Philippines, according to the PAGASA, the Southwest Monsoon is affecting the western sections of Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. PAGASA forecasted moderate to heavy rainfall (50 – 200 mm) over Zamboanga Peninsula, BARMM, SOCCSKSARGEN, Northern Mindanao, Western Visayas, Palawan, Occidental Mindoro, and Negros Oriental. As of 15 July, at 0700 HRS UTC+7, the NDRRMC reported that the impact has resulted in 2 deaths, 1 missing person, 2 injuries, 60.8K affected families, and 51.6K displaced families (with 4.8K families currently being served inside 55 evacuation centers) across Regions IX, X, XI, XII, and BARMM. Damages include 73 partially damaged houses, 30 totally damaged houses, 55 roads (21 of which are still impassable), 3 bridges (2 of which are still impassable), power interruptions in 8 cities/municipalities, water supply interruption in 1 municipality, communication interruption in 1 municipality, and a total of 319.2K USD worth of damages to agriculture and infrastructure. As of reporting, local disaster management authorities have carried out necessary actions to address the situation.
In Viet Nam, on the morning of 15 July, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development held a meeting to discuss the response to Tropical Cyclone 03W. Although the available forecast indicates that Tropical Cyclone 03W has wind strength at level 6 (about 39-49 km/h), the potential impact of 03W still poses a significant risk of flooding and landslides. For example, prolonged heavy rainfall has caused severe flooding in Phu Quoc (Kien Gieng province) on 14 July (VDDMA). Additionally, a deadly landslide event occurred in Ha Giang on 13 July due to heavy rainfall. As of July 14, at 0930 HRS UTC+7, this landslide has resulted to 11 fatalities and 4 injuries. The Ha Giang Provincial Government has mobilised 3 excavators and approximately 300 personnel (including militia and soldiers) for Search and Rescue Operations.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicates a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high across most of ASEAN Region including Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia (Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua), Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand, and Viet Nam. According NCHMF, at 1300 HRS UTC+7, TC 03W, is currently at tropical depression level located at about 16.3N 109.1E over the sea from Quang Tri to Quang Nam. In the next 12 hours, 03W will continue to move to west direction at about 15 km/h, and gradually weakening into low pressure area (NHCMF).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Four (4) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level III), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level III), Ibu (alert level III), and Marapi (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 1), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 2), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and the PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over the southern half of Mainland Southeast Asia, while drier conditions are predicted over most of the southern half of the Maritime Continent and warmer than usual temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent and northern Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance for very heavy rainfall conditions to occur over central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia; and a moderate increase in chance over northern Myanmar, northern Peninsular Malaysia, and northern Philippines, and a small increase in chance over northern Mainland Southeast Asia, northern Borneo, northern half of Sulawesi, Maluku Islands, and northern Papua for extreme hot conditions. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state is now in neutral conditions. According to ASMC, for August – October 2024, models predict either ENSO neutral conditions to persist or La Niña conditions to develop.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Myanmar: DDM;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Viet Nam: VDDMA, NCHMF;
Various news agencies.
