REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the fiftieth week of 2024, the ASEAN region experience 27 significant disasters, including floods, landslides, storms, wind-related events, and volcanic activity. Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand were affected by these disasters. The Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia reported flooding, storms, landslides, and wind-related events in North Sumatra, Banten, East Java, West Nusa Tenggara, Central Java, Riau Islands, South Sulawesi, Lampung, West Java, Central Sulawesi, and Gorontalo. In Malaysia, the Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported flooding in Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang, Johor, and Perak in Peninsular Malaysia. In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported the impacts of the ongoing volcanic activity of Mount Kanlaon in Regions VI and VII. Additionally, monsoonal flooding that began in Week 48 continued to affect Thailand as reported by the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM).
HIGHLIGHT:
In the Philippines, the explosive eruption of Mount Kanlaon in Negros Island prompted mass evacuations as reported by the NDRRMC. The eruption produced a voluminous plume up to 4,000 meters above the vent. Ashfall was reported over a wide area west of the volcano while Pyroclastic density currents or PDCs (hazardous mixtures of hot volcanic gas, ash, and fragmented rock), were also generated. Following this, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) raised the Alert Level of Kanlaon Volcano from Alert Level 2 (increasing unrest) to Alert Level 3 (magmatic unrest). In response, the NDRRMC immediately ordered the evacuation of residents within the danger zone. As of 16 December, the NDRRMC recorded about 44K persons (10.8K families) affected in Negros Occidental (Region VI) and Negros Oriental (Region VII). Of these, 16.1K are currently displaced, including 13.7K who are currently being served in 27 evacuation centres. About USD 500K worth of assistance has been provided by the Philippine government to the affected population. NDRRMC Operations Center is currently on BLUE alert as authorities continue to closely monitor the ongoing volcanic activity.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) has indicated a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high across Brunei Darussalam, most of Indonesia, Malaysia, the central and southern Philippines, Southern Thailand, and Central and Southern Viet Nam. As of this report, INVEST 96W, embedded in the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), is being monitored about 230km east southeast of Tagum City, Davao Del Norte. According to PAGASA and JTWC, the potential for development into a significant tropical cyclone within 24 hours is moderate.
GEOPHYSICAL:
Three (3) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG). Mount Marapi (alert level II), Semeru (alert level II), Raung (alert level II), Agung (alert level I), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level IV), Ibu (alert level III), and Dukono (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Kanlaon (alert level 3), Mayon (alert level 1) and Taal (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia and parts of the northwestern and central Maritime Continent and over parts of the southern Maritime Continent. Meanwhile, warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the much of the equatorial region. There is a small chance of very heavy rainfall over western Java to persist. While parts of the equatorial region are predicted to have above average rainfall, the models are not predicting an increased chance of very heavy rainfall. The extreme hot conditions are predicted with a small increase in chance to persist over much of the equatorial region, including southern Sumatra, Borneo, southern Philippines, Sulawesi, and Papua. There are signs of La Niña conditions, with either ENSO neutral or short-lived La Niña conditions during December 2024 – March 2025.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Various news agencies.