REGIONAL SUMMARY:
During the seventh week of 2026, a total of 21 disaster events were reported across the ASEAN region, including floods, landslides, and wind-related hazards, affecting Indonesia and Malaysia. In Indonesia, Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported incidents across Central Java, North Sumatra, West Java, West Sumatra, East Java, East Nusa Tenggara, Lampung, and North Sulawesi. Meanwhile, in Malaysia, the Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported flooding events in Sabah.
HIGHLIGHT:
Flooding triggered by high-intensity rainfall caused multiple rivers in Jember Regency to overflow on 12 February, inundating communities across eight sub-districts and 12 villages. As of 15 February, at least 29.8K people were affected, including 7.4K families and 557 internally displaced persons; one fatality was reported. Around 7.2K houses were affected, and three bridges and several public facilities sustained damage. Local authorities and response teams continue to carry out emergency response operations, including evacuation support, provision of assistance to affected communities.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high 7-day average rainfall across Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia (Sabah and Sarawak), the Philippines, and Timor Leste. As of this reporting, there is no active tropical cyclone being monitored in the ASEAN region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Five (5) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Dukono (alert level II), Semeru (alert level III), and Ibu (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Taal (alert level 1), Mayon (alert level 3), and Kanlaon (alert level 2) volcanoes in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter-than-usual conditions are forecast over parts of western and central Mainland Southeast Asia, as well as across portions of the northwestern and northeastern Maritime Continent. Meanwhile, no significant regional temperature anomalies are expected. La Niña conditions are predicted to weaken in February 2026 and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions in March 2026. Models predict the ENSO-neutral conditions to persist at least until May 2026, with either ENSO-neutral continuing or El Niño conditions developing in June-July 2026.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: PHIVOLCS;
Various news agencies.
