FLASH UPDATE #1 – INVEST 93W (Tropical Depression Aghon)
Country under monitoring: Philippines
OVERVIEW:According to PAGASA, the Low Pressure Area INVEST 93W east of Surigao del Sur has developed into Tropical Depression (local name: Aghon) since 24 May 2024 at 0200 HRS UTC+7. As of PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin at 1000 HRS UTC+7, INVEST 95W maintained its strength as it moved west-northwestward.
MOVEMENT & INTENSITY: According to PAGASA, INVEST 93W is moving west-northwestward at 10 km/h with maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the centre, gustiness of up to 55 km/h, central pressure of 1006 hPa, and strong winds extend outwards up to 220 km from the centre.
FORECAST:
Track – INVEST 95W is forecast to move generally west-northwestward or northwestward from today (24 May) until tomorrow (25 May) while slowly intensifying. INVEST 93W is forecast to make a close approach or make landfall in the vicinity of Eastern Visayas tomorrow (26 May) morning as a tropical storm. Afterward, INVEST 93W will pass north-northwestward over Eastern Visayas, then emerge over the waters off the east coast of Bicol Region tomorrow evening as a tropical storm. On Sunday (26 May), INVEST 93W will begin recurving generally northeastward or north-northeastward over the waters east of Luzon while starting to continuously intensify.
Intensity – According to PAGASA, current forecast scenario shows intensification into a tropical storm tomorrow (25 May) and severe tropical storm by Sunday (26 May) morning. It is expected to further intensify and exit the Philippine area of responsibility by Tuesday (28 May) as a typhoon.
TCWS: At most TCWS no. 1 – Wind threat Strong Winds (minimal to minor threat to life and property) over Sorsogon, Albay Catanduanes, and Camarines Sur in Luzon; Eastern Samar, Samar, Northern Samar, Leyte and Southern Leyte in Visayas; and Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte including Siargao – Bucas Grande Group, and Surigao del Sur in Mindanao.
HAZARDS:
Heavy Rainfall – At most more than 100-200 mm over Eastern Samar, Southern Leyte, Surigao del Norte, and Dinagat Islands and 50-100 mm over Surigao del Sur, the rest of Eastern Visayas, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate including Ticao and Burias islands, Catanduanes, and the eastern portion of Camarines Sur.
Severe winds – Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds (i.e., strong breeze to near gale strength) are also possible within any of the areas where TCWS No.1 is currently in effect.
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
On 24 May 2024, NDRRMC-OCD is on ALERT Status BLUE (half of the members of the NDRRMC disaster response force is placed on standby and ready to respond in case of emergencies).
PAGASA continues to monitor the weather situation and provide weather updates to all stakeholders.
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); Pacific Disaster Center (PDC Global);
Philippines: NDRRMC-OCD, PAGASA;
Verified news media agencies.
