REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the twenty-sixth week of 2024, the ASEAN region experienced 28 disasters, including floods, landslides, storms, wind-related disasters, drought, and volcanic activity. Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam were reportedly affected by these disasters. According to the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia, flooding, landslides, and wind-related disasters were reported in East Kalimantan, Central Sulawesi, North Sumatra, Gorontalo, North Maluku, North Sulawesi, South Sumatra, Aceh, and West Java, while drought was reported in Central Java. In the Philippines, the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) reported flash floods in Sultan Kudarat in Region XII. Meanwhile, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) Thailand reported flooding in Lampang in the Northern Region. Lastly, the Viet Nam Disaster and the Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) documented storms, landslides, and wind-related disasters in Northern, Central, and Southern Regions.
HIGHLIGHT:
In Week 26, high average rainfall over the northern parts of Sulawesi and Maluku resulted to flooding and landslide incidents as reported by the BNPB. In Central and North Sulawesi, flooding and landslides resulted to 16.1K affected individuals and 3.2K damaged houses, of which three were totally damaged. In Gorontalo, 9.4K persons were flooded, 440 were displaced, and 2.4K houses were damaged. Meanwhile, in North Maluku, about 1.1K persons and 244 houses were affected by flooding.
In the Philippines, the development of INVEST 98W which was embedded along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) brought continuous heavy rainfall that affected the southern regions. This caused a flash flood which affected 441 families or about 1.4K individuals in Sultan Kudarat in Region XII (DSWD). Local authorities have visited the affected areas, conducted assessments, and mobilised resources to support the affected communities.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicates a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high across most of ASEAN Region including Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia (Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, Sulawesi, West Java, and Papua), Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand, and Viet Nam. High average rainfall over the Philippines is attributed to the easterlies, inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and the development of INVEST 98W which tracked and eventually dissipated over Mindanao (PAGASA). As of reporting, there are no active tropical cyclone advisories for the region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Three (3) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia (JMM). Mount Semeru (alert level III), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level III), and Ibu (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 1), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 2), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), wetter conditions from the previous week are predicted to persist over much of Mainland Southeast Asia and the Philippines, although with less confidence over the Philippines. Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the southern half of Southeast Asia in the next fortnight. There is a small increase in chance of very heavy rainfall over northern Myanmar, in particular the northwestern region. There is a small increase in chance for extreme hot conditions over southern coastal Mainland Southeast Asia, Peninsular Malaysia, northern Philippines, eastern Borneo, southern Sulawesi, and Java. While there is an increase in chance of temperature above the 90th percentile over the western coast of Sumatra, the region tends to be cooler, and chance of extreme hot conditions is low. The ENSO state is now in neutral conditions.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: JMM;
Philippines: DSWD, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.
