REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the tenth-week of 2024, the ASEAN region experienced 39 disasters, including floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related disasters. Indonesia and Viet Nam were reportedly affected by these disasters. According to the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia, floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related disasters occurred in Aceh, Banten, Gorontalo, West Java, Central Java, East Java, Yogyakarta, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, North Maluku, West Nusa Tenggara, South Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi, and West Sumatra. Meanwhile, Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) reported storms and wind-related disasters in Yen Bai Province.
HIGHLIGHT:
In Indonesia, as reported by the BNPB, prolonged heavy rainfall and river overflow have triggered flooding and landslides in West Sumatra since 5 March. As of 11 February at 0700 HRS UTC+7, these disasters have claimed 26 lives, with 6 people still missing and 2 injured. The impact has been widespread, affecting 39.2K families (approximately 147.8K individuals) and displacing 78.8K people across various cities/regencies including Agam, Pasaman, Solok City, Padang Pariaman, Padang, Limapuluh Kota, and Pesisir Selatan. The reported damages encompass 38.2K houses, 38 bridges, 47 roads, 28 educational facilities, 2 health facilities, 52 places of worship, 56 government offices/public facilities, and 5.5K hectares of agricultural area. The Head of BNPB Indonesia, Lieutenant General TNI Suharyanto, is scheduled to visit the affected area and hold a coordination meeting with the Governor of West Sumatra Province to oversee the ongoing emergency response efforts. Meanwhile, the Pesisir Selatan Regency has declared an emergency response status for a period of 14 days, from 8 to 21 March. Local disaster management authorities are actively mobilising resources to address the situation in West Sumatra.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed medium to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across the maritime continent, including Sumatra, Java, Nusa Tenggara, Borneo, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua. As of reporting, Tropical Cyclone 18S located approximately 995 km southwest of Jakarta, Indonesia. 18S is forecasted to continue to move east-southeastwards towards Australia. BMKG Indonesia forecasted that indirect impacts of 18S are limited to high waves (moderate to rough sea conditions) along Western Sumatra and Southern Java Sea (BMKG, JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Six (6) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level III) and Marapi (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 1), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, drier conditions are predicted over the northeastern Maritime Continent, southern Mainland Southeast Asia and over much of equatorial region; wetter conditions are predicted over most of the southern and southeastern Maritime Continent; and warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent and most of Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance for very heavy rainfall conditions to occurs over southern maritime continent; and a small increase in chance in Southern coast of Mainland Southeast Asia and parts of the Philippines, and moderate increase in chance in much of the equatorial region for extreme hot conditions. An El Niño is currently present, showing signs of weakening and predicted to likely transition to ENSO neutral in April-May 2024. At the seasonal timescale during February to April, El Niño event typically bring drier conditions to much of the ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: PHIVOLCS;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.
