REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the fourteenth week of 2024, the ASEAN region experienced 26 disasters, including floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related disasters. Indonesia and Thailand were reportedly affected by these disasters. According to the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia, floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related disasters occurred in Central Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, South Sumatra, Lampung, West Papua, West Java, DKI Jakarta, Maluku, East Java, Central Java, West Sumatra, North Maluku, and East Nusa Tenggara. Meanwhile, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) in Thailand reported storms and wind-related incidents in the Northern Region.
HIGHLIGHT:
In Indonesia, moderate to intense rainfall occurred across the archipelago over the past week. These conditions had reportedly caused flooding and landslides in several regions. In East Nusa Tenggara, heavy rainfall triggered flooding and landslides that damaged 145 houses and affected 878 individuals. The landslides occurred in agricultural areas which affected about 110 hectares of rice fields and impacted the livelihood of village people in West Manggarai. Meanwhile, in North Sulawesi, the occurrence of persistent high-intensity rain triggered floods and landslides in Bitung City. According to BNPB, the incidents affected a total of 1,786 persons or 550 families. Among these, 35 people have been displaced, and 437 housing units have been submerged. Other affected facilities included 11 health facilities and road access obstructed by landslides. Emergency response and relief operations including the provision of urgent needs of affected communities, damage assessments, data collection, and clearing operations are being conducted by relevant authorities.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicates a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high across the southern parts of the ASEAN region, particularly in Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia (Peninsular, Sabah, and Sarawak), northernmost part of Myanmar, southern regions in the Philippines, and portions of Central Viet Nam. The concentration of heavy rainfall in the eastern provinces of Indonesia has been associated with the development of Tropical Cyclone Olga (formerly INVEST 96S) which is currently being monitored in the southern Indian Ocean moving southwestward away from Indonesian territory (BMKG, JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Seven (7) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), Malaysia’s Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia (JMM), Myanmar’s Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level III) and Marapi (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 1), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, drier conditions are predicted over much of central and southern Mainland Southeast Asia and northern parts of the Maritime Continent. Wetter conditions are predicted over much of the southern half of the Maritime continent. Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over most of Southeast Asia. There is a small increase in chance of rainfall over parts of the equatorial region, in particular over western Borneo, Sulawesi and the Maluku Islands. The extreme hot conditions are predicted to persist with moderate increase in chance over central Myanmar, southern coast of Mainland Southeast Asia, and the Philippines, with small increase in chance elsewhere in much of the Southeast Asia region. An El Niño is currently present, showing signs of weakening and predicted to transition to ENSO neutral during April-May 2024. At the seasonal timescale during February to April, El Niño event typically bring drier conditions to much of the ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: JMM;
Myanmar: DMH;
Philippines: PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Various news agencies.
