REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the seventeenth-week of 2024, the ASEAN region experienced 30 disasters, including floods, landslides, storms, wind-related disasters, and earthquake. Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam were reportedly affected by these disasters. According to the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia, floods, landslides, and strong winds occurred in Gorontalo, Central Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, West Java, Central Sulawesi, Aceh, and Banten. In addition, a M6.2 earthquake was also recorded offshore of West Java. In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported impacts of strong winds in Zamboanga del Sur. Meanwhile, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) in Thailand reported storms and wind-related incidents in Chiang Rai, Sukhothai, Chaiyaphum, Bueng Kan, Nakhon Sawan in Northern and Northeastern Regions. Lastly, the Viet Nam Disaster and the Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) documented storms and winds in the provinces of Son La, Hoa Binh, Phu Tho, Thanh Hoa and Nghe An.
HIGHLIGHT:
In Indonesia, the Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), recorded a M6.2 earthquake in Java Sea with epicentre at 8.42S and 107.26E, approximately 151 km southwest of Garut, West Java with depth of 70 km. The BMKG reported the following intensities: MMI IV in Sukabumi and Tasikmalaya (felt by most of people), MMI III-IV in Bandung and Garut (felt indoors by many, outdoors by few during the day), MMI III in Tangerang, Tangsel, Bogor, DKI Jakarta, Kebumen, Banyumas, Cilacap and Purwokerto. As of 29 April at 1730 HRS UTC+7, the BNPB reported 13 injuries, 7 internally displaced individuals, 183 affected families (about 620 individuals), 263 damaged houses (10 heavily, 76 moderately, 177 slightly damaged). In addition to damaged infrastructures were 7 government office buildings, 6 health facilities, 8 worship places, and 7 educational facilities. Local authorities in West Java Province are currently coordinating with other relevant agencies to conduct rapid assessments on the impacts and damages. Coordination with relevant agencies are also conducted by authorities to establish tents for displaced persons. The BNPB also sent two teams to support the assessment in Garut and Tasikmalaya. Urgent needs include clothing, food, tarpaulins, and mats to support the affected communities.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicates a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high across Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia (Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, parts of Nusa Tenggara, and Papua), Northern Lao PDR, Malaysia (western coast of Peninsular, Sabah, and Sarawak), northern and eastern Myanmar, parts of northern Thailand, and Viet Nam (Central and Northern). As of reporting, there is no active tropical cyclone advisories for the ASEAN Region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Eight (8) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s BMKG, the Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia (JMM), and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 1), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), drier conditions are predicted over much of the central and southern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia and northern parts of the Maritime Continent. Wetter conditions are predicted over much of the equatorial region. Warmer than usual temperature is predicted to persist over most of Southeast Asia. There is a moderate increase in chance over very heavy rainfall over Sulawesi and the Maluku Islands. There is also a small increase in chance over Sumatra, and much of Borneo. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is an increase in chance of extreme hot conditions for much of Southeast Asia, with high likelihood over much of the Philippines and much of Mainland Southeast Asia (Thailand, Lao PDR, Cambodia, and central and southern Viet Nam). There is moderate increase in chance of extreme hot conditions for much of the rest of Southeast Asia, in particular Sumatra, Borneo, Java, and Sulawesi. An El Niño is currently present, showing signs of weakening and predicted to transition to ENSO neutral conditions during April-May 2024. At the seasonal timescale during March to May, El Niño event typically bring warmer conditions to much of the ASEAN region and drier conditions to much of the northern ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: JMM;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM, TMD;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.