REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the twenty-third week of 2024, the ASEAN region experienced 23 disasters, including drought, floods, landslides, storms, volcanic activity, and wind-related disasters. Reports of these disaster occurrences were from Indonesia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam. According to the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia, floods, storms, and wind-related disasters occurred in South Sulawesi, South Kalimantan, Central Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi, South Sumatra, Riau, Riau Islands, Gorontalo, and North Sumatra, while drought was reported in West Java. Meanwhile, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) of the Philippines reported volcanic activity and landslides (lahar) in Negros Island in Regions VI and VII. Lastly, the Viet Nam Disaster and the Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) documented storms, landslides, and wind-related disasters in the provinces of Lao Cai, Ha Giang, Yen Bai, Cao Bang in the Northern region, and Tien Gang and An Giang in Southern Viet Nam.
HIGHLIGHT:
In Week 23, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) reported an explosive eruption of Kanlaon Volcano at 6:51 PM on 3 June 2023. The eruption produced a 5 kilometre-high plume which formed pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) that descended the southern slopes for 2-3 kilometres. Coarse ashfall and sulfurous odors were reported. PHIVOLCS raised the Alert Level of Kanlaon Volcano from Alert Level 1 (abnormal) to Alert Level 2 (increasing unrest). The eruption caused temporary cancellation of flights in nearby airports. On 6 June, following the occurrence of thunderstorms in the vicinity of Kanlaon, PHIVOLCS reported that lahars affected several waterways and roads. PHIVOLCS released warnings of possible lahars as the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) forecast that localized thunderstorms and the Southwest Monsoon were expected to bring moderate to heavy rainfall in Negros Island. As of 10 June, the NDRRMC reported a total of 29.1K affected persons (8.5K families), 4.6K displacements, 842 hectares of damaged crops, and USD 1.8M worth of damages due the eruption of Mount Kanlaon. Communities within the danger zone were immediately evacuated. Immediate assistance were provided to the affected and displaced population. Authorities and relevant agencies continue to coordinate and monitor Kanlaon’s activity as well as the weather condition. Regular advisories are released for increased vigilance, preparedness, and pre-emptive response measures particularly for potential lahar occurrences following heavy rainfall in the vicinity of Kanlaon.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicates a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high across Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia (Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua), Lao PDR, Malaysia (Peninsular, Sabah, and Sarawak), Myanmar, the Philippines, northeastern Thailand and Viet Nam. Currently, there is no active tropical disturbance being monitored in the ASEAN region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Seven (7) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s BMKG and the Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia (JMM). Mount Ibu (alert level IV), Mount Semeru (alert level III), Mount Marapi (alert level III), Mount Dempo (alert level II), Mount Lewotobi Laki-Laki (alert level III), and Mount Agung (alert level I) in Indonesia, and Kanlaon (alert level 2), Mayon Volcano (alert level 1), Taal (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), wetter conditions are predicted over western Mainland Southeast Asia. Drier conditions are predicted over parts of the western Maritime Continent and southern Mainland Southeast Asia. Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent. There is a small increase in chance of very heavy rainfall over northeastern Borneo and Papua. Elsewhere, while there is increased in change of 90th percentile rainfall over southern Sumatra and western Java, it is the dry season and the chance in extreme rainfall is low. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is an increase in chance of extreme hot conditions with moderate likelihood for the southern and eastern coast of Mainland Southeast Asia, southern Thailand, northern Peninsular Malaysia, much of the Philippines, parts of Sumatra and Java, central Borneo, Sulawesi, and Papua. The El Niño has transitioned to ENSO neutral conditions.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: JMM;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS, PAGASA;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.
