REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the forty-first week of 2022, a total of 50 disasters (34 floods, 11 landslides, 1 storm, and 4 wind-related) affected the region. Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam have reportedly been affected. National Committee for Disaster Management (NCDM) reported flooding in several provinces of Cambodia. Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported floods and landslides caused by prolonged heavy rainfall, strong wind, and overflowing of the rivers in Bali, Bengkulu, Gorontalo, Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, East Java, West Kalimantan, Lampung, West Nusa Tenggara, Riau, West Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, and North Sulawesi Province, Indonesia. Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported that flooding occurred in Johor, Sabah, Serawak, Kedah, Melaka, and Perlis State, Malaysia. The Philippines’ National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported flooding and rain-induced landslides caused by Tropical Cyclone NESAT and INVEST 98W in Region I, II, CALABARZON, and CAR, and flooding and strong wind in Region I and XII. Lastly, flooding, landslide, wind and storm caused by Tropical Cyclone SONCA occurred in South Central Coast and North Central Coast, and Flooding and landslides in several provinces of Viet Nam as reported by the Viet Nam National Disaster Management Authority (VNDMA).
HIGHLIGHT:
For the past week, according to the Philippines’ NDRRMC and Viet Nam’s VNDMA, TC NESAT and INVEST 98W resulted in floods and rain-induced landslides in Region I, II, CALABARZON, and CAR in the Philippines, and floods, landslides, storms, and winds in North Central Coast, and South Central Coast Region of Viet Nam. According to the report, TC NESAT made landfall on 16 Oct over Calayan Island, Cagayan in the Philippines, and TC SONCA made landfall on 15 Oct over Central Coast of Viet Nam. The events in total have affected 44K families (197K persons), cost the life of 1 individual, 16K persons displaced, and caused damages to 14K houses, 15 bridges, and 62 roads. Meanwhile, from 1 Sep – 11 Oct, flooding has affected Cambodia. According to Cambodia’s NCDM, as of 13 Oct 2022, the events has cost the life of 15 individuals, affected 125K families (550.5K persons), displaced 22.4K persons, damaged 115 houses, 336 schools, 111 pagodas, 29 health centres, and almost 2K km of roads.
Lastly, flooding caused by The Southwest Monsoon and TC NORU in Thailand since week 39 still exists. According to Thailand’s Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM), as of 11 Oct, a total of 156K households still affected by floods (from a total 240K households affected). A total of 3.5K family kits and 9K personal hygiene kits from The Disaster Emergency Logistics System for ASEAN (DELSA) Satellite Warehouse in Chainat, Thailand has been provided to the affected people through DDPM. The AHA Centre has heightened monitoring efforts and stands ready to support the member state when the need arises.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed high 7-day average rainfall spreading across Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, and Papua in Indonesia; Ayeyawardy Region in Myanmar; Northern parts of Luzon associated with the development of INVEST 98W and TC NESAT and Mindanao of the Philippines; South and Eastern parts of Lao, and Central Highlands, North Central Coast, and South Central Coast Region of Viet Nam associated with TC SONCA southern parts of Lao PDR. As of reporting, TC NESAT currently equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson scale), is located in the NW Pacific Ocean with maximum sustained winds of 148 km/h. TC NESAT will continue to move westward towards Viet Nam landmass. (ASEAN DMRS, PAGASA, NCHMF).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Five (5) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded in the region by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and Thailand’s Meteorological Department (TMD). Mount Semeru (alert level III), Ibu (alert level II), and Ili Lewotolok (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 1), Bulusan (alert level 1), and Mayon Volcano (alert level 2) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to the Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are expected over much of the central Maritime Continent and Malay Peninsula. Drier conditions are expected over much of western and central Mainland Southeast Asia. Cooler conditions are expected over much of central, eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, and over parts of the southern Maritime Continent. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance to occur in Southeastern Borneo and southern Philippines, and a moderate chance in Southern Sumatra, Java, Nusa Tenggara for a very heavy rainfall event; a small increase in chance for extreme hot conditions to occur in Southeastern Maritime Continent and northern Philippines. La Niña conditions have been present. At the seasonal timescale, La Niña events tend to bring wetter conditions to much of the ASEAN region. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also present. Negative IOD tends to bring wetter conditions to much of the southern ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Cambodia: NCDM;
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Myanmar: DMH;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS, DSWD;
Thailand: DDPM, TMD;
Viet Nam: VNDMA;
Various news agencies.
