REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the thirty-seventh week of 2023, eighteen (18) disaster events reportedly affected the region. Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam have been reportedly affected. Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia reported floods in Aceh and North Sumatra; drought in West Java, Central Java, East Java, Bali, and North Sulawesi. Meanwhile in the Philippines, M6.3 earthquake occurred in Dalupiri Island (Calayan) with a depth of 29 km affecting Cagayan Province as reported by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC). Thailand’s Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) reported floods and storms across Northern, Northeastern, Central, Eastern, and Southern Regions. Lastly, Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) reported flooding, landslides, and storms in Lao Cai.
HIGHLIGHT:
According to the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), M6.3 with a depth of 29 km on 12 Sep 1803 HRS UTC+7, occurred in Cagayan. As of 13 Sep, the NDRRMC reported that the impacts of the M6.3 earthquake in Cagayan has reached 174 persons (43 families) affected from 3 barangays, 5 injured, 3 damaged houses, and 42 schools with an initial estimated amount of damage amounting to USD 787K. In Viet Nam, according to VDDMA, flooding, landslides, and storms in Lao Cai, caused the death of 10 individuals. Local authorities mobilised around 300 personnel to participate in search and rescue operations. Meanwhile in Thailand, according to DDPM, heavy rainfall, windstorms, and the effects of Southwest Monsoon have caused floods in Northeastern, Central, Eastern, and Southern Region. In total, these disaster events have affected 5.4K families and 2 people died have been reported by DDPM. As of reporting, relevant government authorities have carried out necessary actions to address the situation.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed moderate to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across Cambodia; Lao PDR; northern Sumatra, Kalimantan, Maluku, and Papua in Indonesia; Sabah and Sarawak Malaysia; Myanmar; the Philippines; and Viet Nam. As of reporting, an area of convection (INVEST 96W) has persisted near 5.7N 162.2E, approximately 530 km east-southeast of Pohnpei. INVEST 96W is forecasted to tracks north-northwest and has a LOW chance of developing into a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Seven (7) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), PHIVOLCS, and Myanmar’s Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH). Mount Semeru (alert level III) and Dukono (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Mayon (alert level 3), Taal (alert level 1), and Kanlaon (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Indonesia’s Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over the parts of the equatorial region, including the northwestern Maritime Continent, northern Borneo and the southern Philippines; drier conditions are predicted over most of the southern Maritime Continent; warmer conditions is predicted over much of Mainland Southeast Asia and over parts of the equatorial region. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance in the parts of the Philippines, and northern Sumatra, and a moderate increase in chance in the parts of Malay Peninsula, and parts of northern Borneo for a very heavy rainfall event; a moderate increase in chance for extreme hot conditions to occur in Northern Philippines, Lao PDR, parts of southern Myanmar, parts of southern Borneo, western Java, and southern Sumatra. El Niño conditions are predicted to strengthen over the next few months. At the seasonal timescale during September to November, El Niño events bring drier conditions to much of the ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Myanmar: DMH;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.
