REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the seventh week of 2024, the ASEAN region experienced 15 disasters, particularly floods, storms, and wind-related disasters. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand were reportedly affected by these disasters. According to the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia, floods and wind-related disasters occurred in Central Kalimantan, Jambi, Central Java, West Java, North Maluku, East Java, West Nusa Tenggara, North Sulawesi, and Riau. Meanwhile, Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) Malaysia reported flooding events in Sarawak. Lastly, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) of Thailand documented the impacts of storms and strong winds in the Northern and Northeastern Regions.
HIGHLIGHT:
The concentration of moderate to heavy rainfall in the southern ASEAN Region had caused several flooding incidents that affected 7.5K persons in Indonesia and Malaysia as reported by BNPB and NADMA, respectively. In addition, these flooding incidents displaced 223 persons in Jakarta, Indonesia and 413 persons in Sarawak Malaysia. BNPB also reported a total of 1.9K damaged houses due to the flooding in Indonesia. Meanwhile, severe local storms and strong winds had damaged houses and affected families in Thailand. The DDPM reported a total of 286 damaged houses and affected families (about 1.4K persons) in Northern and Northeastern Regions of Thailand. Severe local storms accompanied by strong winds also damaged an additional 113 houses and affected 471 persons in Indonesia as reported by the BNPB. Relevant agencies and authorities had conducted immediate measures to respond to the disasters and support the affected communities.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed medium to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across the southern part of the ASEAN region: Indonesia (Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, Nusa Tenggara Islands, and Papua); and Sarawak, Malaysia. As of reporting, there are no active tropical cyclone advisories for the region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Five (5) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia (JMM) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level III) and Marapi (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 2), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, drier conditions are predicted over the northern half of the Maritime Continent and southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia. Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the central and southeastern Maritime Continent, with higher likelihood over the southeastern Maritime Continent. Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent as well as southern Mainland Southeast Asia. There is a small increase in chance for very heavy rainfall over Papua. There is high likelihood of extreme warm conditions over the southern coast of Mainland Southeast Asia, including parts of southern Viet Nam, southern Cambodia, and central and southern Thailand. There is also an increase in chance of extreme warm temperature over much of the Maritime Continent, with high likelihood over Sumatra, northern Borneo, Java and Sulawesi, and moderate increase over the coastal parts of Peninsular Malaysia, central and eastern Borneo, central Philippines, Nusa Tenggara, and the Maluku Islands. An El Niño is currently present, showing signs of weakening and predicted to likely transit to ENSO neutral in April-May 2024. At the seasonal timescale during February to April, El Niño event typically bring drier conditions to much of the ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA, JMM;
Philippines: PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Various news agencies.
