REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the sixth week of 2024, the ASEAN region experienced 36 disasters, including floods, landslides, and wind-related disasters. Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines were reportedly affected by these disasters. According to the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia, floods, landslides, and wind-related disasters occurred in Bengkulu, Gorontalo, West Java, Central Java, East Java, Lampung, West Nusa Tenggara, Papua, Riau, South Sulawesi, and South Sumatra. Meanwhile, Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) Malaysia reported flooding events in Pahang. Lastly, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) documented landslides in Davao de Oro (Region XI) as the effects of the Shear Line and Trough of Low-Pressure Area.
HIGHLIGHT:
In Indonesia, as reported by the BNPB, prolonged heavy rainfall, strong winds, and river overflow have led to flooding, landslides, and other wind-related disasters in Central Java. As of 12 Feb at 0700 HRS UTC+7, these disasters have resulted in the loss of four lives, with one person injured. Additionally, 28.7K families (107.3K persons) have been affected, and 22.8K people have been displaced across Tegal, Banjarnegara, Demak, Grobogan, Cilacap, and Brebes. The reported damages include 23.7K houses, 98 educational facilities, 119 places of worship, 14 other public facilities, and 5.5K hectares of agricultural land. Local disaster management authorities are actively responding to address the situation. Meanwhile, in the Philippines, the combined effects of the Shear Line and the Trough of Low-Pressure Area in Davao de Oro (Region XI) resulted in a landslide incident on 6 Feb. As of 10 Feb at 1900 HRS UTC+7, the NDRRMC has reported 33 deaths, 89 missing persons, 35 injuries, and 1.3K displaced families (5.4K persons) across 12 evacuation centres, and 62 totally damaged houses. Relevant agencies and authorities promptly conducted forced evacuations in the affected community due to the potential damming effect. As of the last report, these agencies are engaged in Search, Rescue, and Retrieval Operations at the incident site.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed medium to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across Brunei Darussalam; Indonesia (Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, Nusa Tenggara Islands, and Papua); Malaysia; and the Philippines. As of reporting, there are no active tropical cyclone advisories for the region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Twelve (12) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level III) and Marapi (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 2), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, drier conditions are predicted over parts of central and southern Mainland Southeast Asia; wetter conditions are expected over parts of the western and central Maritime Continent; warmer than usual temperature is forecast over the Maritime Continent and the coastal parts of southern Mainland Southeast Asia; and cooler than usual temperature is expected over parts of central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance in east of Peninsular Malaysia, southern Sumatra, southern Borneo, and Sulawesi, a moderate increase in chance in western Borneo for very heavy rainfall; and a small increase in chance in Southern coast of Mainland Southeast Asia, central Borneo, central Sulawesi, Maluku Islands, Nusa Tenggara, and Papua, and moderate increase in chance in Java and Borneo for extreme hot conditions. An El Niño is currently present, showing signs of weakening and predicted to likely transit to ENSO neutral in April-May 2024. The positive IOD has likely ended. The El Niño event typically brings drier conditions to much of the ASEAN region during the seasonal timescale from February to April.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Various news agencies.
