REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the fifth week of 2024, the ASEAN region experienced a total of 29 disasters including floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related disasters. Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand were reportedly affected by these events. According to the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia, floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related disasters occurred in Aceh, Banten, Bengkulu, West Java, Central Java, South Kalimantan, West Sumatra, South Sumatra, North Sumatra, and Yogyakarta. Meanwhile, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) documented flooding and landslides in Regions X, XI, XII, CARAGA, and BARMM as the effects of Northeast Monsoon and Trough of Low-Pressure Area. Lastly, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) in Thailand reported storms and strong winds in Nong Bua Lam Phu.
HIGHLIGHT:
In the Philippines, according to the NDRRMC, the combined effects of Northeast Monsoon and Trough of Low-Pressure Area have brought light to heavy rains which resulted to flooding and landslide incidents in several areas in Mindanao. According to PAGASA, on 3 Feb at around 1000 HRS UTC+7, the Low-Pressure Area had dissipated. As of 5 Feb, at 0700 HRS UTC+7, the NDRRMC reported that the impact has reached 16 deaths, 3 missing persons, 11 injuries, 214.1K families (812.6K persons) affected, and 398.2K persons displaced (of which, 85.3K persons were being served inside 331 evacuation centres) in Region X, XI, XII, CARAGA, and BARMM. Reports of damages included 101 houses (49 partially, 52 totally), 206 roads (104 roads still not passable), and 16 bridges (15 bridges still not passable). A total of 554K USD worth of assistance had been provided to the affected community by MSWD, DSWD, LGU, NGO, and DOH.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed medium to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across the Southeast Asia Maritime Continent which includes Brunei Darussalam; Indonesia (Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua); Malaysia (Sabah and Sarawak); and Mindanao in the Philippines. As of reporting, there are no active tropical cyclone advisories for the region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Four (4) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 2), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, drier conditions are predicted over parts of the northeastern Maritime Continent; and warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent and the coastal parts of southern Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance for very heavy rainfall to occur in southern Sumatra, eastern Borneo, and western Java; and a moderate increase in chance in southern coast of Mainland Southeast Asia, the Philippines, Sumatra, eastern Java, and northern Papua, and a small increase in chance in much of the rest of the maritime continent for extreme hot conditions. An El Niño is currently present, showing signs of weakening and predicted to likely transit to ENSO neutral in April-May 2024. The positive IOD has likely ended. At the seasonal timescale during February to April, El Niño event typically brings drier conditions to much of the ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Various news agencies.
