REGIONAL SUMMARY:
In the fifty-first week of 2023, the ASEAN region experienced 18 disaster events that affected Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. In Indonesia, the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported floods and wind-related disaster events in Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Riau, and West Jaa. Additionally, drought had been reported in Lampung and West Java. In Malaysia, the Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported flooding in Kelantan, Negeri Sembilan, Pahang, Selangor, and Terengganu. Meanwhile, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) documented flooding incidents in CAR.
HIGHLIGHT:
According to the NDRRMC, as of 4 December at 0700 HRS UTC+7, the Combined Effects of Shearl Line and Tropical Cyclone JELAWAT (local name Kabayan) has reached MAJOR category based on the AHA Centre’s DMA Guidelines. One (1) city/municipality in Region XI has declared a state of calamity. According to the latest situation reports, around 105.7K families (398.9K people) have been affected in Region VI, VIII, X, XI, MIMAROPA, and CARAGA, and 3.3K persons remain internally displaced. Reports also indicate that there have been 1 person injured and 1 person missing. The disaster has also resulted in 2.5KK damaged houses, 167 of which were totally damaged. Damages have reportedly reached 43.2K USD (damages to agriculture and infrastructure) and an estimated 266K USD worth of assistance have been provided to the affected community by relevant agencies. As of reporting, relevant government authorities had carried out necessary actions to address the situation.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed moderate to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua in Indonesia; Peninsular, Sabah, and Sarawak Malaysia; Mindanao and Visayas in the Philippines associated with the development of Tropical Cyclone JELAWAT; and southern Thailand. As of reporting, there are no active tropical cyclone advisories for the ASEAN region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Four (4) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level III), Marapi (alert level II), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level II), Ili Lewotolok (alert level II), and Dukono (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Mayon (alert level 2), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according PVMBG and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the western Maritime continent; drier conditions are predicted over much of the southern Maritime Continent and northeastern Maritime Continent. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance in Borneo, Sulawesi, Papua, Java, coastal parts of Vietnam, northwestern Myanmar, and northern Philippines, and a moderate increase in chance for Sumatra and Malay Peninsula for a very heavy rainfall event; a moderate increase in chance in Papua, and very likely in much of Maritime Continent and parts of southern and western Mainland Southeast Asia for extreme hot conditions. An El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are currently present. At the seasonal timescale during December to February, both positive IOD and El Niño events typically bring drier conditions to much of the ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS;
Various news agencies.
