FLASH UPDATE #2 – Tropical Cyclone JELAWAT (Kabayan)
Country under monitoring: Philippines
OVERVIEW: On 18 Dec 2023, 0830 HRS UTC+7, “JELAWAT” made landfall over Manay, Davao Oriental. Later “JELAWAT” weakened into a Tropical Depression and further weakened into a Remnant LPA at 1330 HRS UTC+7. As of 0300 HRS UTC+7 today, the centre of the Remnant LPA was located at 290 km west southwest of Zamboanga City (PAGASA). The National Centre for Hydro – Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) of Viet Nam is also closely monitoring this system as it tracks and gradually weakens toward the Viet Nam East Sea in the next 24 to 48 hours.
MOVEMENT: Moving westward at 25 km/h (NCHMF).
STRENGTH: Maximum sustained surface winds estimated at 46 km/h with gusts of up to 65 km/h.
FORECAST: According to PAGASA, the LPA is expected to move westward toward the southern portions of Palawan. The chances of re-intensification into a significant tropical cyclone is low, however PAGASA continues to monitor this system until the next few days.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL (TCWS): The highest signal raised was TCWS No. 2 (minor to moderate threat to life and property) over Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, the northern portion of Agusan del Norte, the eastern portion of Agusan del Sur, and the northern portion of Davao Oriental. Meanwhile, TCWS No. 01 was raised over some portions of Visayas and Mindanao. Full lists are available in this link.
HAZARD:
- Heavy rainfall of at most 100-200 mm was forecasted over Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, and Southern Leyte; 50-100 mm over Eastern Visayas, Davao Region, Northern Mindanao, and the rest of Caraga. Forecast rainfall were generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
- The Remnant LPA and the shear line are expected to bring significant amounts of rainfall in the next 3 days over Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
- As of reporting, PAGASA has declared the status of Agusan River Basin in Mindanao under Flood Watch.
IMPACTS: NDRRMC’s Situation Report No. 2 dated 19 Dec 2023 at 0700 HRS UTC+7 records the following impacts:
- A total of 86,321 persons (25,489 families) affected, 1 missing, and 1 injured
- PAGASA continues to monitor weather situation and provision of weather updates to all stakeholders.
- 82,703 have been displaced and served in 390 evacuation centres
- 53 damaged houses (3 totally damaged)
- 1 damaged infrastructure (school, estimated worth of damage at PHP 200K or USD 3.6K)
- 5 roads and 1 bridge affected (33% not passable)
- 9 seaports affected
- 11 municipalities/cities have power interruption
- 83 municipalities/cities with class suspension and 57 with work suspension
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- On 16 Dec, 1300 HRS UTC+7, The NDRRMC conducted a Weather Updating Meeting with NDRRMC Member-Agencies and OCD Regional Offices ICOW TD Kabayan, Northeast Monsoon, and Shear Line.
- On 17 Dec, Pre-Disaster Risk Assessment meetings for TD Kabayan, Northeast Monsoon, and Shear Line were conducted.
- NDRRMOC Alert Status was raised to RED effective 17 December 2023, 8:00 PM.
- As of 19 Dec 2023, NDRRMC is on BLUE Alert as relevant authorities continue to closely monitor, report, and respond to the impacts of TC JELAWAT and the potential effects of the Remnant LPA and the shear line.
- Emergency Alert and Warning Messages for heavy rainfall to affected provinces were disseminated.
- Continuous monitoring and dissemination of warnings and advisories, and coordination with OCDROs and NDRRMC Member-Agencies are being conducted.
- As of reporting, a total of PHP 92.7K (USD 1.7K) worth of assistance has been provided to affected communities
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates.
DATA SOURCES:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); Pacific Disaster Center (PDC Global);
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA;
Viet Nam: NCHMF;
Verified news media agencies.
