REGIONAL SUMMARY:
In the fiftieth week of 2023, the ASEAN region experienced 25 disaster events that affected Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. In Indonesia, the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported floods and strong winds in West Java, Central Java, Aceh, South Sumatra, Riau, Central Kalimantan, Central Sulawesi, and North Sumatra. In addition, a M4.6 earthquake was also reported in West Java. In Malaysia, the Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported floods in Kelantan, Terengganu, and Selangor. In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported the combined effects of the shear line and Tropical Cyclone JELAWAT (Kabayan) in Regions XI and XIII. Lastly, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) Thailand reported flooding in Narathiwat and Yala in the Southern Region of Thailand.
HIGHLIGHT:
This week, the region experienced several flooding events that accounted for 95% of total disaster affected persons in the region. These flooding events displaced 180 persons in Riau and South Sumatra in Indonesia (BNPB); about 6.3K in Kelantan, Selangor, and Terengganu in Malaysia (NADMA); and 6.7K in southern Philippines (NDRRMC). These account for a total of 13.2K individuals or 98% of all internally displaced persons in the region this week. Relevant authorities implemented proactive measures to monitor and respond to the impacts of these floods and ensure the safety of affected communities. In addition, the combined effects of the shear line and the development of Tropical Cyclone JELAWAT (Kabayan) in southern regions of the Philippines had also affected areas which were previously impacted by the M7.4 and M6.8 earthquakes in Weeks 48 and 49. In response to these threats and developing situation, the Philippines’ NDRRM Operations Center was put on Red Alert status (NDRRMC).
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed moderate to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across most of southern part of the ASEAN region. In particular, moderate to high rainfall were observed over Southern Thailand; Malaysia; Brunei Darussalam; Sumatra, Kalimantan, and eastern Indonesia; and the southeastern parts of Visayas and Mindanao in the Philippines associated with the development of Tropical Cyclone JELAWAT (Kabayan). As of reporting, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) announced that JELAWAT had weakened into a remnant low as it tracked along the southern regions of the Philippines towards Sulu Sea.
GEOPHYSICAL:
Eleven (11) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level III), Anak Krakatau (alert level III), Marapi (alert level II), Ili Lewotolok (alert level II), Ibu (alert level II), and Raung (alert level I) in Indonesia, and Mayon (alert level 2), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to the Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, drier conditions are predicted over much of the southern Maritime Continent while wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the western Maritime continent. Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance for very heavy rainfall over the Myanmar, central Vietnam, central Borneo, central Sumatra, and northern Philippines. For Mainland Southeast Asia, there is moderate increase in chance of hot conditions over southern Myanmar, northern Thailand, and Malay Peninsula. There is also a moderate increase in chance of very hot conditions over parts of central Philippines. For Maritime Continent, there is a high chance for extreme hot conditions over Java. There is also a moderate increase in chance of hot conditions over northern and southern Sumatra, western parts of Malay Peninsula, most of Borneo, Sulawesi, and Papua. An El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are currently present.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Various news agencies.
