REGIONAL SUMMARY:
In the thirty-eighth week of 2023, the region experienced a total of 31 disaster events. The affected ASEAN Member States include Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. In Indonesia, the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported incidents of floods, landslides, and tornadoes in Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, East Kalimantan, Central Sulawesi, and West Papua. Additionally, drought conditions were observed in South Sumatra, Lampung, Banten, West Java, South Sulawesi, and Southeast Sulawesi. In Malaysia, the Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported cases of flooding and tornadoes in Sabah, Selangor, Perak, Pulau Pinang, Kedah, Sarawak, Melaka, and Pahang. Lastly, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) of the Philippines documented incidents of flooding and landslides caused by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the Southwest Monsoon, and Low-Pressure Area (LPA) across various regions in the Philippines.
HIGHLIGHT:
According to the NDRRMC, Regions VI, XII, and BARMM in the Philippines have been affected by floodings and landslides caused by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the Southwest Monsoon, and a Low-Pressure Area (LPA). As of 23 September, the disasters have resulted in 2 casualties, 1 missing person, 1 injured person, 81.9K families (391.9K persons) affected, and 2.4K persons displaced. The damages reported include 17 houses (15 partially damaged, 2 totally damaged), 1 bridge, 2 roads. In response to this situation, a total of 3 cities/municipalities in Maguidanao (BARMM) have been declared under a State of Calamity. Relevant government authorities have taken necessary actions to address the situation. Meanwhile, in Myanmar, DDM has reported flooding situations across several regions since week 36. The affected areas include Ayeyarwaddy, Bago, Mon, Magway, Mandalay, Naypyidaw, and Shan. As of 18 September, approximately 1.6K families (5.8K people) have been affected by these floods. Reports also indicate that there have been 7 lives lost, 20 houses totally damaged. The Myanmar authorities have provided assistance worth 5K USD to support the affected community.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed moderate to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across Cambodia; northern Sumatra, northern Kalimantan, and Papua in Indonesia; southern Lao PDR; Peninsular, Sabah, and Sarawak Malaysia; lower parts of Myanmar; the Philippines; Thailand; and central parts of Viet Nam following the development of INVEST 91W, and southern Viet Nam. As of 1500 HRS UTC+7, Tropical Depression 13W was located approximately 98 km east-northeast of Da Nang or 74 km North-Northeast of Quang Ngai, Viet Nam. 13W is forecasted to generally tracks west-northwest direction towards mainland Southeast Asia at 15-20 km/h. (DMH, MWRM, TMD, NCHMF, JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Three (3) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and Myanmar’s Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH). Mount Ili Lewotolok (alert level II), Semeru (alert level III), and Ibu (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Mayon (alert level 3), Taal (alert level 1), and Kanlaon (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Indonesia’s Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted southern Mainland Southeast Asia; drier conditions are predicted over much of the southern ASEAN region; warmer conditions is predicted over much of Mainland Southeast Asia and over much of the southern ASEAN region. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance for a very heavy rainfall event to occur in the Southern Mainland Southeast Asia; a moderate increase in chance for extreme hot conditions to occur in Myanmar, northern Borneo, southern Philippines, much of the western and central Maritime Continent. El Niño conditions are predicted to strengthen over the next few months. At the seasonal timescale during September to November, El Niño events bring drier conditions to much of the ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Cambodia: MWRM;
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Lao PDR: DMH;
Myanmar: DDM, DMH;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM, TMD;
Viet Nam: VDDMA, NCHMF;
Various news agencies.
