REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the twenty-first week of 2024, the ASEAN region experienced 36 disasters, including floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related disasters. Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam were reportedly affected by these disasters. According to the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia, flooding and landslides were reported in Bangka Belitung, Jakarta, West Java, West Kalimantan, Lampung, West Papua, Riau, West Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, West Sumatra, and South Sumatra. In Malaysia, Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported flooding in Perak. The Philippines’ National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported flooding, landslides, storms, and winds caused by Tropical Cyclone EWINIAR. Meanwhile, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) Thailand reported flooding, storms, and wind-related disaster incidents in Nan, Chiang Mai, Phrae, Phyao, Lampang, Amnat Charoen, Chiang Rai, Surin, Nakhon Pathom, and Tak. Lastly, the Viet Nam Disaster and the Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) documented flooding, landslides, storms, and winds in Bac Kan, Quang Nam, Binh Thuan, and Long An.
HIGHLIGHT:
In Indonesia, BNPB reported that heavy rainfall and unstable soil conditions have caused flooding and landslides in several regencies which affect to more than 100K people. Particularly in Ogan Komering Ulu (South Sumatra), heavy rainfall on 22-23 May has led to flooding and flash floods. As of 27 May at 1530 HRS UTC+7, these disasters have impacted 17K families (69K individuals), resulting in the displacement of 12.8K people. According to the report, six fatalities have been reported, with one person still missing. The damage reports shows that nearly 27 educational facilities, two health facilities, 16K houses, 22 bridges, 15 government/public buildings, 41 places of worship, and 108 hectares of agricultural areas have been affected. Local disaster management authorities and other relevant agencies are actively mobilising resources to address the situation in Ogan Komering Ulu.
In the Philippines, according to Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the low pressure area (INVEST 93W) east of Surigao del Sur has developed into Tropical Depression EWINIAR (local name Aghon) on 24 May at 0100 HRS UTC+7. EWINIAR further intensified and made it landfall over the Philippines landmass on 24 May (Homonhon Island), 25 May (Giporlos, Basiao Island, canduyong Island, Batuan, Masbate City, and Torrijos), and 26 May (Lucena City and Patnanungan). As of 27 May at 0700 HRS UTC+7, the NDRRMC reported that floods, landslides, and other related incidents over multiple regions in the Philippines. NDRRMC reported the following: 8.5K families (19.4K persons) affected, 5.3K persons displaced (2.2K persons inside 81 evacuation centres, 3.2K persons outside), and 7 injured in 158 barangays; for damages, 22 houses were reportedly damaged, and 2 roads and 1 bridge are currently not passable (from a total of 7 roads and 1 bridge affected); for critical lifelines, 56 cities/municipalities experienced power outage, 1 city/municipality experienced water supply interruption, and 4 cities/municipalities experienced communication interruption, and 3 airports as well as 57 seaports are non-operational. A total of 32.8K USD worth of assistance have been provided to the affected persons.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicates a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high across Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia (Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua), Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines (associated with the development of TC EWINIAR), Thailand, and Viet Nam. As of 27 May at 1600 HRS URTC+7, TC EWINIAR is on Typhoon Category, was located at about 155 km East of Casiguran, Aurora (the Philippines). TC EWINIAR is forecasted to move generally northeastward and may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on 29 May (PAGASA).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Six (6) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG). Mount Semeru (alert level III), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level II), Ibu (alert level IV), and Marapi (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 1), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over most of Mainland Southeast Asia; and warmer conditions are predicted over the Maritime Continent and the southern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance for very heavy rainfall conditions to occurs over parts of Mainland Southeast Asia and Papua; and a moderate increase in chance over parts of the eastern Maritime Continent, southern and eastern coastal parts of Mainland Southeast Asia, and very likely over much of the western and central Maritime Continent for extreme hot conditions. An El Niño is weakening and predicted to transition to ENSO neutral conditions during May 2024. At the seasonal timescale during March to May, El Niño events typically bring warmer conditions to much of the ASEAN region and drier conditions to much of the northern ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Myanmar: DMH;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.
