REGIONAL SUMMARY:
In the forty-seventh week of 2023, the ASEAN region experienced 28 disaster events that affected Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. In addition, the flooding and landslides in eastern-central regions of the Philippines that started in Week 46 persisted in Week 47. In Indonesia, the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported floods and landslides in Aceh, North Sumatra, West Nusa Tenggara, Riau Islands, West Kalimantan, and East Java; tornadoes in West Java; and drought in East Java. In Malaysia, the Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported flooding in Kelantan and Terengganu. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) and Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) documented flooding incidents and severe local storms in Cotabato and Davao del Sur in the Philippines. Meanwhile, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) in Thailand several flooding events in the Southern Region.
HIGHLIGHT:
Continuous and heavy rainfall conditions caused several flooding incidents in the ASEAN Region in Week 47. Flooding affected a total of 142K persons in Indonesia (BNPB), Malaysia (NADMA), Philippines (NDRRMC, DSWD), and Thailand (DDPM). This accounted for 92% of all affected persons in Week 47. In addition, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, (PAGASA), the effects of shear line persisted in most of Southern Luzon, Visayas, and parts of Mindanao in the Philippines and brought more rainfall in the already flooded areas. As of the latest report of NDRRMC, the continuous rainfall brought by the shear line already affected 7 regions, 19 provinces, and 118 cities/municipalities. The number of affected persons reached 1.13M and 81.4K displaced individuals. As of reporting, 48.7K persons are still being served in 162 evacuation centers.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed notable concentration of high 7-day average rainfall spreading across Sumatra in Indonesia, most of Malaysia, eastern parts of central to southern Philippines, Singapore, and southern Thailand. These conditions were associated with the rainfall brought by the shear line (PAGASA), and the development of a Low Pressure Area INVEST 99W which was monitored in the vicinity of Indonesia by Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika, (BMKG), Malaysia by Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia, (JMM), Singapore by Meteorological Services Singapore (MSS), and southern Thailand by Thai Meteorological Department (TMD). As of reporting, there are no active tropical cyclone advisories for the ASEAN region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Nine (9) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s BMKG and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level III), Anak Krakatau (alert level III), Ili Lewotolok (alert level II), Ibu (alert level II), and Dukono (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Mayon (alert level 3), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Indonesia’s Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over parts of southern Mainland Southeast Asia and the northern Malay Peninsula. Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent and eastern coast of Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a moderate increase in chance of heavy rainfall over the eastern coast of Viet Nam and southern Thailand. Due to the dry season, it is less likely to have very heavy rainfall. There is also a small increase in chance of heavy rainfall over Borneo and Sulawesi. Over the Maritime Continent, there is an increased chance in extreme hot conditions over much of the region, with small increase in chance over northern Borneo, and moderate increase in chance over the Philippines, Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra and Java, and a small increase in chance over much of Borneo. Given than this is not the warmest time of the year, there is a small or moderate increase in chance of hot conditions. Over Mainland Southeast Asia, there is moderate increase in chance of extreme hot conditions over central and southern parts of Myanmar. An El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are currently present which typically bring drier conditions to much of the ASEAN Region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA, JMM;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS, DSWD;
Thailand: DDPM, TMD;
Various news agencies.
