REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the fourth week of 2024, the ASEAN region experienced a total of 28 disasters including floods, landslides, and wind-related disasters. Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand were reportedly affected by these events. According to the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia, floods and wind-related disasters occurred in East Nusa Tenggara, Southwest Sulawesi, West Sumatra, Central Java, Yogyakarta, Bangka Belitung, North Kalimantan, Central Sulawesi, West Java, East Java, Aceh, Riau, South Sumatra, and North Sumatra. In Malaysia, the Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported of flooding in Terengganu, Kelantan, Pahang, and Johor. In Thailand, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) also reported impacts of floods in Narathiwat Province in the Southern Region.
HIGHLIGHT:
Heavy and persistent rainfall brought by the Monsoons resulted to flooding situations in Southern Mainland Southeast Asia. In Peninsular Malaysia, the NADMA reported widespread flooding in Terengganu, Kelantan, Pahang, and Johor which caused 1 death, displaced more than 3.3K individuals (1K households), and activated up to 50 evacuation centers in Peninsular Malaysia. Heavy rainfall was also experienced in Southern Thailand and resulted to flooding in Narathiwat Province where up to 755 families (about 3.8K persons) were reportedly affected (DDPM). These areas in As of reporting, local disaster management authorities have carried out necessary actions to address the situation. These were the same regions that were affected by the widespread flooding caused by the strong Northeast Monsoon in Southern Mainland Southeast Asia which was reported in Week 1.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed medium to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across the Southern Mainland Southeast Asia which includes Malaysia and Southern Thailand; Indonesia; and Singapore. A notable high rainfall concentration along the eastern coastal parts of Peninsular Malaysia was also observed and northwestern part of Sumatra. As of reporting, there is no active tropical cyclone advisories for the ASEAN Region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Four (4) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG). Mount Semeru (alert level III), and Merapi (alert level III), in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 2), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, drier conditions are predicted over the western Maritime Continent. Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent and the southern most parts of Mainland Southeast Asia. a small increase in chance of very heavy rainfall remains over the eastern Maritime Continent, including Papua, Sulawesi, Maluku Islands, and eastern parts of Borneo, as well as Java and Nusa Tenggara. There is a continued moderate increase in chance for extreme warm temperature over the southern coast of Mainland Southeast Asia. There is also a moderate chance of exceeding the 90th percentile for eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, including parts of Lao PDR and central Viet Nam, although this is the cooler time of year for these regions. There is a moderate increase in chance for extreme warm conditions over Sumatra, parts of northern Borneo, northern half of the Philippines, Java, and Sulawesi. An El Niño is currently present, while the positive IOD started to weaken in December 2023 and is predicted to end in January – February 2024. At the seasonal timescale during December to February, El Niño event typically bring drier conditions to much of the ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Various news agencies.
